083
FXUS63 KOAX 212307
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
607 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
(50-80%). SOME STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE
SEVERE (15% CHANCE FOR ANY GIVEN STORM.)
- COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY (30%) INTO SUNDAY (70%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SKIES ARE PRIMARILY CLEAR ACROSS NEBRASKA, IOWA, AND THE HIGH
PLAINS AS H5 RIDGING SUGGESTS SUBSIDENCE. A BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE AREA'S MID-SECTION IS MORE OF A DRYLINE THAN A COLD
FRONT.
AS OF THE LUNCH HOUR, TEMPS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE MID- TO
UPPER-70S WITH A FEW 80S POPPING UP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE
THE DRIER AIR IS EASIER TO HEAT. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM
THE MID-50S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA TO SOME
MID- TO LOWER-30S NORTH OF IT.
THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIP SOUTH BY ONLY 50 MILES OR SO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DRIVE IT
NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT
A NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
HELPS WITH MOISTURE RETURN OVER THIS FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY
A DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WHILE A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. A DRYLINE WILL PUSH THROUGH EAST AND
APPROACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. STRONGER GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS
IN THIS PART OF THE STATE WILL HELP MIX SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY FIND THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE 30S
AGAIN. THIS WOULD ALLOW RH VALUES TO SLIP BELOW 20%. THERE IS
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
AND HOW LOW THE DEWPOINTS WILL GET. THIS FORECAST IS UNDOUBTEDLY
AGGRESSIVELY DRY AND CLOSER TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, FIRE WEATHER DAYS DO TEND TO LEAN THIS WAY.
HAVE FLIPPED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
EXPANDED CONSIDERABLY. RECENT CONTACT WITH LOCAL FIRE OFFICIALS
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN FUEL READINESS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WERE THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA, FIRE CONCERNS
WOULD BE TAMPED DOWN.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER LOOK POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THANKS TO THE LLJ AND A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
THURSDAY
A POWERFUL 985 HPA LOW WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER ON THURSDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING, BUT IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE EC AND
THE RAP BOTH SLOWED THE FRONT WITH 12Z RUNS TODAY AND THEREFORE
PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AS OUR
AREA SHOULD SPEND THE AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS MEAN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THEY MAY START AS SUPERCELLS,
THE STRAIGHT HODOS SUGGEST INTERFERENCE BETWEEN STORMS AS
UPSCALE GROWTH CONTINUES. EXPECT AN EVENTUAL LINE OF STORMS TO
FORM AS THEY PUSH EAST. THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT (EARLY SUPERCELLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FUNNELS/TORNADOS). HEAVY RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE, TOO, WITH PWAT
VALUES ABOVE THE 97TH PERCENTILE.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, COOLER WEATHER BUILDS IN WITH HIGHS
ANTICIPATED TO PEAK ONLY IN THE (SEASONALLY NORMAL) SIXTIES. TWO
DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH LESSER CHANCES ON SATURDAY (40%) AND BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY
(70-80%) WITH AN UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS SD/NEBRASKA VICINITY. MOISTURE RETURN AND PWAT
VALUES ARE NOTEWORTHY ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IT'S EARLY, BUT NBM
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 50-60% CHANCE OF 0.50" OR MORE
PRECIP FALLING THIS WEEKEND. THAT HOLDS TRUE FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE BECOME MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING, GUSTING 20 TO
30 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KOFK MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-
012-015>018-030>033-042.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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