667
FXUS63 KOAX 221728
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1228 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
(50-80%). SOME STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE
SEVERE (15% CHANCE FOR ANY GIVEN STORM.)
- COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY (30%) INTO SUNDAY (80%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
WEATHER STAYS QUIET OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE SITS ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE A TROUGH SITS OVER THE PACNW BRINGING OUR NEXT
CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH, ADVECTING IN MOISTURE AS WELL HAS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STAY HIGHER, ONLY FALLING
INTO THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA. AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA STAY DRIER, HOWEVER,
WITH HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOW HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH
WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT, WE SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THIS SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE NOCTURNAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY NORTH INITIALLY ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. AS THE LLJ
ROTATES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WE SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A
FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THE AFTERNOON, DESPITE BEING WELL INTO THE WARM-SECTOR OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, KEEPING MORE OF OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. STRONG LIFT WILL NEED TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING
INVERSION IN PLACE, BUT THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR AROUND
4PM WITH INITIALLY DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE CAPPING INVERSION GETS OVERCOME,
EXPECT THE LINE TO BLOW UP FAIRLY QUICKLY, WITH ONLY A SHORT
WINDOW FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. STILL, VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND TORNADOES POTENTIAL WILL START WITH THESE DISCRETE
STORMS. ONCE THE LINE DEVELOPS, WE'LL TRANSITION INTO QLCS
THREATS, PRIMARILY WIND AND BRIEF TORNADOES, THOUGH HAIL REMAINS
POSSIBLE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE ORIENTED OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST INDICATING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL
BE IN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST-ORIENTED SEGMENTS OF THE QLCS. THIS
LINE OF STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 10PM,
THOUGH POSSIBLY AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
A COOLER CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVES IN STARTING FRIDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S FRIDAY
MORNING AND ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS, COOLER TEMPERATURES HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVER THE WEEKEND WE SEE A STRONG LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM PASS JUST
TO OUR SOUTH, WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE
NORTH AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SATURDAY WE START TO SEE
THIS MOISTURE MOVE BACK IN WHILE THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS HOLDS BACK THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE NORTH OF THIS DEVELOPING FRONT, HOWEVER, WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR AREA STARTING EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
MODELS STILL ARE FIGURING OUT THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM,
WITH NEWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. THIS
ACTUALLY PUTS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA POTENTIALLY
BACK IN THE WARM-SECTOR WITH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY.
WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE UNLIKELY.
WATCH THIS PERIOD FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR AT
LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA.
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING PUSHES BACK NORTH OUT OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES STAY AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE INITIAL TAF PERIOD, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO 20-30 KTS, AND ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MVFR TO IFR CLOUD COVER IS SET TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR. ALSO, VERY SMALL LIGHT SHOWERS
OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST A POSSIBLE, AND WILL MOVE NORTH OVER
TIME (30% CHANCE) WITH CONFIDENCE NOT BEING HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BY 16/17 TOMORROW MORNING,
CEILINGS WILL BE LIFTING SLIGHTLY AND GUSTS WILL BE SLOWER
(BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS) IN ANTICIPATION OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>033-042.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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