695
FXUS63 KOAX 221914
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
214 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING.
- DREARY CONDITIONS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE EARLY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (15% SEVERE CHANCE FOR ANY GIVEN STORM),
WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY (30%) INTO SUNDAY (80%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH PUSHING
FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, WITH A BAND
OF ASCENT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. LOW
STRATUS THAT SURGED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS SINCE
ERODED, AS DAYTIME MIXING HAS KICKED OFF. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED IN ANTICIPATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH,
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THAT WE'VE MIXED INTO
DESPITE MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER. GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE, WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES DRIVING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30%. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IS LEADING TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING. AT THAT POINT, WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL TO ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO REBOUND.
OVERNIGHT, THAT AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD, FILLING IN THE AREA WITH CLOUD COVER LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WON'T AMOUNT TO MUCH WHILE
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST ARRIVES TOMORROW AT
NOON, WHERE A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER TROUGH TO THE WEST. TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT, WE'LL KEEP LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY LULLING PEOPLE INTO A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY
THAT STORMS MAY NOT HAPPEN. OVER TIME, THE CAPPING INVERSION THAT
WAS STRENGTHENED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN,
ALLOWING STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. PLENTY OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR, WITH THE DEVIL BEING IN THE
DETAILS AS TO WHAT THAT MAY LOOK LIKE. A LARGE COMPONENT OF THE
DEEPER-SHEAR VECTOR IN FORECAST PROFILES ARE IN LINE WITH THE
INITIATING BOUNDARY, MAKING MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS THE LIKELY STORM
MODE, WHERE THE IS SOME INITIAL ROOM FOR ISOLATED CELLS THAT
STRUGGLE INITIALLY WITH THE DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. PROFILES FAVOR
LARGE HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.
IN TERMS OF UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING, ONE THE FIRST THINGS TO MENTION
IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, NAMELY THE TWO
CAMPS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO PLACES THE FRONT
ALONG A LINE FROM FAIRBURY TO ONAWA, WHILE THE OTHER CAMP (COMPRISED
OF LARGELY EXPERIMENTAL MODELS LIKE THE MPAS) HAS IT 2-3 COUNTIES TO
THE WEST. SHIFTING TO TIMING, THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY MAKE IT
HARD TO SEE INITIAL STORMS STRUGGLING WITH THE CAP. BY 17Z THAT
INVERSION WILL BE WEAKENING, AND THE INITIAL UPDRAFTS WILL GENERALLY
BE WEAKER DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. STRONGER STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2-4 PM, AND WOULD BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OR JUST
WEST OF THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA/COUNCIL BLUFFS METRO AREAS AS THEY
FORM. ONCE THEY GET A HEAD OF STEAM, THEY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, CLEARING IT BY 7-
8 PM. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
STORMS INITIALLY FORM, BUT IT LOOKS AGAIN THAT AREAS THAT
DESPERATELY NEED RAINFALL (PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST NEBRASKA) MAY
MISS OUT ON MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT, VERY DRY AIR
WILL FALL INTO PLACE AND WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER TO BE VERY
HIGH WHERE RAIN DOES NOT FALL.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND:
WITH THE THURSDAY'S REMAINING STORMS HAVING PUSHED OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST, THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SHAPED BY THE LINGERING CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN
MANITOBA. SQUAT MID/UPPER FLOW WILL TURN FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER ARM
SHEDDING OFF AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MAIN LOW, HELPING TO
FORCE LIGHTER RAIN CHANCES THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGHS
WILL DIP FROM UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FRIDAY INTO THE LOW-TO-
MID 60S WITH SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OCCURRING. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
A NEGATIVELY-TILTING SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE COURSE OF THE TWO DAYS, WITH THE INITIAL
WAVE CURRENTLY TIMING OUT FOR INCREASED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. ONCE THAT
SYSTEM KICKS OFF TO THE EAST, WE'LL BE DEALING WITH ZONAL FLOW
AND COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE INITIAL TAF PERIOD, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO 20-30 KTS, AND ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MVFR TO IFR CLOUD COVER IS SET TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR. ALSO, VERY SMALL LIGHT SHOWERS
OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST A POSSIBLE, AND WILL MOVE NORTH OVER
TIME (30% CHANCE) WITH CONFIDENCE NOT BEING HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BY 16/17 TOMORROW MORNING,
CEILINGS WILL BE LIFTING SLIGHTLY AND GUSTS WILL BE SLOWER
(BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS) IN ANTICIPATION OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>033-042.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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