344
FXUS63 KOAX 230438
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (15% CHANCE OF SEVERE FOR ANY
GIVEN STORM), WITH THE GREATEST RISK BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY (30-60%) AND SUNDAY
(60-90%).
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ON AND OFF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION, CHANGE IS ON
THE HORIZON. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE
ROUNDING THIS FEATURE AND HELPING DRIVE OUR CHANGING WEATHER
TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS, STRONG LEE
TROUGHING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS ARE
RAPIDLY BRINGING RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR MANY. TO OUR WEST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, A DEVELOPING FRONT AND A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH
EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY THIS TIME,
DECAYING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
ANTICIPATED. RELATED TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE, LOW-CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
KEEP IT MILD OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES THAT REMAIN LARGELY IN
THE 60S.
THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER EAST
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THIS TREND IS LIKELY INFLUENCED
BY LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE
TO HEAT THROUGH THE 70S INTO THE LOW 80S. BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS, BY MID-AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY HARLAN, IA TO OMAHA,
NE TO BEATRICE, NE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE QUICKLY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, THE INITIAL HAZARD IS EXPECTED
TO BE LARGE HAIL. CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED, FORMING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS RATHER QUICKLY. AS THE MODE TRANSITIONS FROM
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO A MOSTLY SOLID LINE, THE HAZARD
SHIFTS TOWARDS DAMAGING WINDS. THERE REMAINS A THREAT OF A
TORNADO OR TWO, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THIS SCENARIO. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT LACKING. THAT SAID, STORM
INTERACTIONS COULD HELP OVERCOME THIS IN ISOLATED
CIRCUMSTANCES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AS A RESULT.
FRIDAY BEGINS A TREND OF COOLER, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST. THE MORNING SHOULD START IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY, BUT THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE. OUR NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE
THE SAME AS FRIDAY, BUT WITH THE ADDITION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A
MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME. AS A MORE POTENT TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
A BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (60-90% CHANCE) WILL BE A WELCOMED
SIGHT. THIS IS AIDED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
AT THE MOVEMENT, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW, BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
CURRENTLY, AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER HAVE A 15%
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKED.
THE SAME PATTERN FROM THIS WEEKEND SHOULD HOLD INTO NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY SEES NEAR-MORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, THOUGH A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ENTER THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
AS YET ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DIVE INTO THE FINER DETAILS, BUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
APPRECIATED AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE THEIR
RUN OF REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30 AND
35 KTS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES, DECREASING CEILINGS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MVFR
CEILINGS EXPAND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z.
THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE
REDUCTION IN SPEEDS OR GUSTS. THERE IS A LOW (15 TO 30% CHANCE)
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 06Z AND 12Z
FOR ALL TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL AVIATION IMPACTS WOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IF IT DOES OCCUR. AT THIS TIME,
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA PRECLUDES INCLUSION IN THE TAF.
IFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT OMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. LNK MAY DEVELOP IFR CEILINGS ALSO, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IFR CEILINGS MAY END UP HOLDING
TO THE EAST OF LNK. A QUICK INCREASE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CEILINGS ARRIVES BY THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THIS IS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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