649
FXUS63 KOAX 230532
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (15% CHANCE OF SEVERE FOR ANY
GIVEN STORM), WITH THE GREATEST RISK BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY (30-60%) AND SUNDAY
(60-90%).
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ON AND OFF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION, CHANGE IS ON
THE HORIZON. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE
ROUNDING THIS FEATURE AND HELPING DRIVE OUR CHANGING WEATHER
TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS, STRONG LEE
TROUGHING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS ARE
RAPIDLY BRINGING RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR MANY. TO OUR WEST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, A DEVELOPING FRONT AND A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH
EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY THIS TIME,
DECAYING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
ANTICIPATED. RELATED TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE, LOW-CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
KEEP IT MILD OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES THAT REMAIN LARGELY IN
THE 60S.
THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER EAST
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THIS TREND IS LIKELY INFLUENCED
BY LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE
TO HEAT THROUGH THE 70S INTO THE LOW 80S. BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS, BY MID-AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY HARLAN, IA TO OMAHA,
NE TO BEATRICE, NE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE QUICKLY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, THE INITIAL HAZARD IS EXPECTED
TO BE LARGE HAIL. CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED, FORMING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS RATHER QUICKLY. AS THE MODE TRANSITIONS FROM
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO A MOSTLY SOLID LINE, THE HAZARD
SHIFTS TOWARDS DAMAGING WINDS. THERE REMAINS A THREAT OF A
TORNADO OR TWO, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THIS SCENARIO. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT LACKING. THAT SAID, STORM
INTERACTIONS COULD HELP OVERCOME THIS IN ISOLATED
CIRCUMSTANCES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AS A RESULT.
FRIDAY BEGINS A TREND OF COOLER, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST. THE MORNING SHOULD START IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY, BUT THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE. OUR NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE
THE SAME AS FRIDAY, BUT WITH THE ADDITION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A
MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME. AS A MORE POTENT TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
A BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (60-90% CHANCE) WILL BE A WELCOMED
SIGHT. THIS IS AIDED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
AT THE MOVEMENT, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW, BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
CURRENTLY, AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER HAVE A 15%
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKED.
THE SAME PATTERN FROM THIS WEEKEND SHOULD HOLD INTO NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY SEES NEAR-MORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, THOUGH A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ENTER THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
AS YET ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DIVE INTO THE FINER DETAILS, BUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
APPRECIATED AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE THEIR
RUN OF REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KOFK: CEILINGS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL AT THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR LEVELS BY 09Z WITH A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. RAIN/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 15Z. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM SOUTHERLY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD TO WESTERLY BY 15Z TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 01Z
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL; HOWEVER, ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS PAST 15Z ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL.
KOMA: CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR LEVELS THIS MORNING WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE AS STRATUS MOVES INTO THE
REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL BY 10Z. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION.
KLNK: CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AS STRATUS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 08Z. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 08Z
WITH CHANCES FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY BY MID-AFTERNOON, TO
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH.
CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS STRATUS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...ANW
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