415
FXUS63 KOAX 240501
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1201 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY (30-60%) AND SUNDAY (60-90%).
- THERE IS A LOW (15%) CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ON AND OFF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
AFTER AN ACTIVE DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, A REPRIEVE IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BECOME AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AS IT INCHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT OUR WEATHER, WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THIS
LARGER FEATURE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. BEHIND THIS, A COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED THROUGH, BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S START THE DAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, OFFERING
QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND, THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LOW MEANDERING OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PIVOT AROUND
IT TOWARDS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS, A DEVELOPING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO LIFT THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT, INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED. THESE TWO
FEATURES SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SPREADS EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL, MUCH OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT A
MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME THERE MAY
EXIST A LOW (15%) CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER NEAREST THE NEBRASKA-
KANSAS BORDER. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAREST THE WARM
FRONT AND HAS THE BEST SHOT OF SURFACE-BASED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. OUTSIDE OF THIS,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AND SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SEES A MORE POTENT SYSTEM BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE. AS A TRAILING, STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE WARM FRONT FROM SATURDAY MAY SINK
SOUTH TOWARDS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AS A COLD
FRONT. NORTH OF THIS FRONT, MUCH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH (60-90%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ON SUNDAY UNDER THIS REGIME. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE
AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW. THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A LOW (15%)
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
LOW WILL DICTATE THIS THREAT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. OUTSIDE OF THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS,
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR RUN NEAR NORMAL. WHEN ALL IS SAID
AND DONE ON MONDAY, MANY LOCATIONS MAY SEE AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN OR POTENTIALLY MORE.
NEXT WEEK SEES MORE OF THE SAME GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN. A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO START THE WEEK, BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S
EACH AFTERNOON. OUR NEXT TROUGH IN THE SERIES IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO ENTER THE PICTURE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES APART FROM A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. WINDS STAY OUT
OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY LEADING TO A COUPLE HOURS OF
VRB WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO EAST OR
NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...MCCOY
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