519
FXUS63 KOAX 250452
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY (30-60%) AND SUNDAY (60-90%).
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING
(5-15%) AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY MONDAY MORNING (15-30%).
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ON AND OFF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND. A STREAM OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL FURTHER BE SUPPORTED BY A FRONT THAT WILL HANG AROUND
THE REGION. ON SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH AHEAD OF ONE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER OUR AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON, PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
THE TROUGH MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. WHILE
NOT EXCEPTIONAL MOISTURE, THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MODEST
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY STRONG, SO A
COMBINATION OF MARGINAL SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING.
A BRIEF LULL IS ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS OUR NEXT TROUGH IN THE SERIES WILL SUPPORT STRONG WARM
ADVECTION SUNDAY MORNING, LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO OUR
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT, BUT
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME. THOUGH AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING AS A RESULT.
THIS IS NOT THE LAST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THOUGH. AS A
STRONGER TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY, A POTENT ENVIRONMENT TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. WITH
A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA, A DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
SAME TIME, STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM
SECTOR AND AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH THE
ALIGNMENT OF THESE FEATURES, STRONG FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IS LIKELY. HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED WITH AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING. THE
OTHER CONCERN MAY BE SEVERE WEATHER. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONGSIDE
AMPLE WIND SHEAR. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS MAY MATERIALIZE. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
LOW PRESSURE, AN ALL HAZARDS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS POSSIBLE.
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN, BUT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
ARE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HEADING INTO MONDAY, EVERYTHING BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, BUT THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A TAD COOLER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
UPPER 50S AND 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO PARTS OF TUESDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT TROUGH USHERS
IN THE RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR NORMAL. WE ARE QUICKLY
APPROACHING OUR PEAK SEVERE WEATHER SEASON AND THIS ACTIVE
PATTERN IS AN EARLY INDICATOR OF THIS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA. A SLIGHT SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE MORE EASTERLY WINDS REDEVELOP
SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY APPROACH OFK LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS KEEPS
COVERAGE WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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