253
FXUS63 KOAX 261755
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1255 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BEFORE SUNRISE.
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY THIS MORNING.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE TO
NO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS DIRECTED BY A CLOSED AND STACKED
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER CALIFORNIA
EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN INVERTED SFC TROF
STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE NE/IA/MO TRIPLE POINT NNE TOWARD MASON
CITY, IA.
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN NOSE OF THE AN AREA OF
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA STATE LINE THIS EVENING.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, LOW CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1-3 MILES IN MANY OF THESE SAME
AREAS BY SUNRISE. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREAS WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER UNTIL
ABOUT NOON, THOUGH IT MAY LAST LONGER.
SUNDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LESS CERTAIN THAN WE'D
LIKE DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS, A SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS SOLID MOISTURE
RETURN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO THE AREA AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS GIVE INCENTIVE FOR UPDRAFTS. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE LARGE HAIL UP TO 2"
IN DIAMETER IN MUCH OF THE SAME AREA UNDER THE THREAT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT (SOUTH OF I-80). DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOS UP TO EF2 STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE (SPC).
EXPECT A LULL IN CONVECTION AROUND MIDNIGHT, BEFORE ANOTHER
UPTICK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW / TRIPLE JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. CAMS SUGGEST A HIGHER SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CURRENT
GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM JUST SOUTH OF THIS CWA. IT'S USUALLY A
SAFER BET TO ASSUME THAT A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL END UP
FARTHER SOUTH THAN FARTHER NORTH THANKS TO A POTENTIAL COLD
POOL. DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT,
EVEN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE OVERNIGHT TORNADO POTENTIAL
WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WARM SECTOR WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO DRIVE
TOO FAR NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
POPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY FROM ABOUT 15% AT SUNRISE
TO NEAR 100% BY SUNSET SUNDAY EVE. PWAT VALUES ARE IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AND THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY AT
'MARGINAL'. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT PUSHED TO 'SLIGHT'
AS THE STORMS WILL BE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. (NOT
TOO HEAVY THOUGH, HREF HAS 95% CHANCE QPF UNDER 1" AN HOUR). QPF
OF 1-2" IS COMMON ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HREF
GIVES ODDS OF 1"+ OF PRECIP IN THESE AREAS A 60-90% PROBABILITY.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AS
TEMPS WILL HANG NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. IF YOU'RE ONE OF THOSE
PEOPLE THAT "MISSES" SPRING, HERE'S YOUR CHANCE TO GET OUT THERE
AND ENJOY IT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING THE
TAF SITES AROUND 20Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT, BETWEEN 07-10Z. A FEW STORMS IN EACH
ROUND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. OFF AND
ON STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ068-090>093.
IA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR IAZ090-091.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...KG
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