742
FXUS63 KOAX 270457
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1157 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
TIERS OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. DAMAGING WIND, HAIL,
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE TO
NO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE EJECTED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS NOW.
KOAX'S RADAR BEAMS HAD NOT BEEN RETURNING TO THE RADOME AS THEY
HAD NO CONVECTION TO BOUNCE OFF OF IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION.
WITH THE LLJ RAMPING UP, A NEW AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
ORIGINATED IN WESTERN KANSAS HAS BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THIS EVENING AS IT IS ABOUT TO CROSS INTO THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES THE WARM FRONT CLOSER TO OKLAHOMA THAN NEBRASKA,
SO THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY
IS ELEVATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE BEATRICE AREA SHOW
ABOUT 5,000 FEET OF STABLE AIR UNDER THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
FOR THAT REASON, THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT IS NEAR ZERO. HAIL AND
PERHAPS A DAMAGING GUST REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRONGEST STORMS JUST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF
THE NE/KS BORDER AND CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION ONLY GROWS.
CONSIDERED CANCELING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN FAR SE NEBRASKA/SW
IOWA AS QPF HAS SLIPPED CLOSER TO 1-1.5" (VS 2.5") AT MAXIMUM
AND IN SOME OF THE BEST DRAINED AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
DECIDED TO LET IT RIDE FOR NOW.
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS SHOW VISIBILITY FALLING BELOW 2 MILES AT
TIMES.
THE CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO GROW UPSCALE AND SHOULD BE
CLEARING WESTERN IOWA BY 8:00 AM, LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PLODDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE COURSE OF
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 50 NEAR NIOBRARA, NE
TO 70 ALONG THE MISSOURI STATE LINE. OMAHA SHOULD PEAK CLOSE TO
A SEASONAL NORM IN THE MID-60S. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35-40 MPH.
LONGER TERM
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST STAYS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE AT ADDITIONAL SPRING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H5 WILL VEER AND COME OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AS GENERAL TROFING MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS
MID-WEEK. THE NBM HAS INTRODUCED 25% POPS ON THURSDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH.
TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY BOTH BRING PATCHY
FROST TO FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS
AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME,
BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER DARK. HAVE REMOVED STORM
MENTION AT KOFK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE COVERAGE. HAVE LIMITED THE WINDOW OF CONVECTION AT
KOMA AND KLNK TO MOSTLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE, CONCERN
WILL BE LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND
RAINFALL. HAVE ALL THREE SITES GOING TO IFR CATEGORY AND KOFK
SLIPPING LIFR BY 03Z MONDAY.
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS NOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30 KNOTS EXPECTED.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ068-090>093.
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR IAZ090-091.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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