066
FXUS63 KOAX 281059
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
559 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TUESDAY BRINGS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A SCATTERED (30-60%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A LOW
(10-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
- EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY APPROACH
FREEZING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE LEAVES THIS FORECAST AREA UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH NOTED HEIGHT INCREASES. A
PERSISTENT LAYER OF STRATUS AT ABOUT 2KFT AGL BLANKETS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL
TAPER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SFC HIGH NEARS NORTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD LEAVE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT FOR 5-10 MPH WINDS AT THE MORNING'S COLDEST MOMENTS.
FOR THAT REASON, DON'T BELIEVE THAT FROST IS LIKELY TO FORM IN
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID-30S.
LOW- LYING AREAS MAY SLIP CLOSER TO FREEZING, BUT ANY BRUSHES
WITH 32F WOULD BE BRIEF. COINCIDENTALLY, APRIL 28TH IS THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE OF THE SEASON'S LAST FREEZE AT SIOUX CITY
AND TEKAMAH.
TUESDAY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY, BUT AT AN UNREMARKABLE
5-15 MPH. SKIES WILL BE NEARLY OVERCAST BY SUNRISE AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES AND
DEEPENS AFTER PASSING THE AREA, BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP ACROSS AREAS EAST OF HERE, BUT 20-50% POPS ARE WARRANTED
ACROSS THIS CWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH LESS THAN 0.1" EXPECTED. BE GLAD OUR TEMPS REMAIN JUST
ABOVE FREEZING AS THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF WESTERN
IOWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HAVE NOT ADDED FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH
QUIET WINDS, THE FORECAST WOULND'T HAVE TO COOL MUCH FURTHER
BEFORE SOME WIDESPREAD SATURATION. CURRENTLY, REFS KEEPS THE
PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITY SLIPPING BELOW 5 MILES AT UNDER 10%.
LOW TEMPS FLIRT WITH FREEZING AGAIN, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO WAYNE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTER A GRAY DAY OF SUB-PAR TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, WEDNESDAY'S
60S WILL FEEL GOOD. A SFC HIGH PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA KEEPS
THE WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WHICH CAN BE THANKED - ALONG WITH THE
SUNSHINE - FOR THE IMPROVED TEMPS.
A COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A SECOND H5
CLOSED LOW SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LOWER WITH THIS BOUNDARY PASSAGE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
LOOK TO BE HAMPERED BY LOTS OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY. PERHAPS MORE IMPACTFUL WOULD BE THE CLEARING SKIES
AND CALM WINDS FORECAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BY FRIDAY MORNING.
CURRENT NBM NUMBERS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
DIP TO FREEZING OR NEAR 30 FRIDAY MORNING. (NBM DISPLAYS FREEZING
PROBS OF 10-20% NORTH OF I-80). FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY SHOULD THIS TREND ENDURE.
LONGER RANGE
RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RESPOND BY CLIMBING INTO
THE LOWER-70S BY SUNDAY. UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTANT OF
BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE, THE AREA SHOULD BE
SUBJECT TO OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES AND REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR
EARLY MAY SHOWERS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT MORE TO DUE
NORTHERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH CIGS LOWERING BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
KOFK AND KLNK (50-60%) THAN KOMA (20-30%), WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT KOFK BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
CIGS TO BREAK UP LATER THIS EVENING WITH WINDS STAYING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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