194
FXUS63 KOAX 291028
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID-30S TONIGHT. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 9AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING MAY BE COLDER.
- A SHIFT OF THE PATTERN COMES IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA, BUT HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN PRODUCING AN AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA. AT THE SURFACE, WE'RE ACTUALLY DEALING WITH SINKING AIR AS
A SURFACE HIGH PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT, THE RADAR RETURNS
LOOKED MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE RAIN THEY REPRESENTED. RETURNS
AT 0.5 DEGREES WERE EXAGGERATED THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WAS
CROSSING THE MELTING LAYER (MELTING SNOW LOOKS LIKE A LOT HEAVY
RAIN). THE DRY LOWER LEVELS EVAPORATED A LOT OF THE RAIN, TOO.
VIRGA WAS NOTED ALL AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD BASES STARTING AT 8KFT
AND CURRENTLY STILL CLOSE TO 5KFT.
EITHER WAY, THOSE CLOUDS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CALM WINDS ALLOWING THE COLDEST
AIR TO SETTLE INTO LOW SPOTS, PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE AREA'S NORTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES WHERE SKIES
WILL CLEAR FIRST AND TEMPS WILL FALL FURTHEST. NUMBERS
GENERALLY STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THE OMAHA METRO SHOULD SEE
TEMPS HOLD CLOSER TO 40F THANKS TO MORE TIME SPENT UNDER THE
CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY
AFTER THE CHILLY START, TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM THANKS TO THE
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS AND SUNNIER SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD JUMP BY TEN DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES (20-30%) PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T EXPECTED, BUT THERE SHOULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
UNFORTUNATELY THESE SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE WORST AND DRY LIGHTNING
WOULD BE MOST DANGEROUS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORE POPS (20-40%) ARE DESERVED ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY EARLY,
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE PRAIRIE. AGAIN,
INSTABILITY IS NOTED, BUT IT LOOKS ELEVATED AND MEAGER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL PEAK ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S,
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
THURSDAY MORNING'S LOWS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY MORNING'S DUE TO THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER. FRIDAY'S, ON
THE OTHER HAND, MAY BE THE COLDEST REMAINING THIS SEASON. FROM
COLUMBUS, NE TO ONAWA, IA AND POINTS NORTH ARE FORECAST TO HIT
FREEZING OR COLDER. A FROST ADVISORY (MAYBE EVEN FREEZE WARNING)
LOOKS LIKELY THERE.
THE REST
AS AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND, TEMPS
CLIMB, FINDING THEIR WAY INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT
NOW THERE IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP CHANCES OR TIMING,
BUT THE NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD DRIVE REGULAR
IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WAVES OFTEN WON'T SHOW UP IN
NWP UNTIL MAYBE 48/72 HOURS OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. WE MAY SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, BUT ONLY ABOUT A 15%
CHANCE OF ANY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS.
WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT
VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MORE WESTERLY
AFTER 07Z, BUT COULD STILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
016>018-030>032-042-043-050-065-078-088.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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