548
FXUS63 KOAX 291843
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
143 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NIGHTLY FROST CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND A FREEZE IN SOME LOCATIONS
WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
- OCCASIONAL SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (UNDER 30%) AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THIS
EVENING, THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN WARMING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
RELATIVELY QUIET AND COOL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HOWEVER, THERE
WERE SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. NO OBS POINTS WERE
REPORTING RAIN NEARBY LIKELY OWING TO SOME DRY AIR STILL IN
PLACE, BUT A FEW COUNTIES TO THE NORTH, THERE WERE SOME RAIN OBS
WITH SOME STRONGER RETURNS. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE WORKING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, BRINGING SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE
AREA BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. IT SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO
MUCH, JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FROST IN LOW-LYING
AREAS IN NORTHEAST NE, BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP US JUST WARM
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.
WE'LL STAY UNDER A SIMILAR PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
TROUGH AXIS/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BOTH DAYS. LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WE'LL SEE ADDITIONAL SPOTTY
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON AS THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLIDES THROUGH. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS THE NON-
SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER WILL BE 1 OR HIGHER, IMPLYING
POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS. LOTS OF SMALLER SCALE DETAILS TO
WORK OUT THERE (E.G. WILL THERE BE A LINGERING BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA FROM EARLY MORNING PRECIP), BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IN ADDITION, WE'RE
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD CLOUDS OR EVEN PRECIP, AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAT WE'LL GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR A TRUE FREEZE, BUT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A CANDIDATE
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY IN PART OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS, IF YOU PLANTED ANYTHING ALREADY, YOU'LL PROBABLY
WANT TO COVER IT UP THOSE NIGHTS.
BY SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
START TO SLIDE EASTWARD, BRINGING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. EXPECT MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
WIDESPREAD 70S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WE'LL STILL
BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT A TRAIN OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES SLIDING THROUGH AT
VARIOUS TIMES BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES. THAT SAID,
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE RATHER SPARSE, SO NOT LOOKING LIKE
ANY HIGH-END WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY. IF YOU'RE LUCKY,
YOU'LL SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE
WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER CA
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER, STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN EXACT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM, WITH SOME GUIDANCE KEEPING MOST OF IT TO OUR
SOUTH. FOR NOW, HAVE 20-50% CHANCES FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGHEST TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
BETWEEN 5000-10000 FT AGL. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS,
THOUGH DIRECTION WILL BE CHANGING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD,
GENERALLY WITH A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE
DAY TODAY AND THURSDAY AND SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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