840
FXUS63 KOAX 300451
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1151 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NIGHTLY FROST CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND A FREEZE IN SOME LOCATIONS
WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
- OCCASIONAL SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (UNDER 30%) AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THIS
EVENING, THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN WARMING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING FEATURES BRISK ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, WHILE MORE LAX, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
FILLS IN FROM CANADA. ZOOMING INTO THE LOCAL AREA, KOAX RADAR
IMAGERY IS LITTERED WITH WEAK RETURNS AS SHOWERS AND A STRAY RUMBLE
OF THUNDER MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS IOWA SPURRED ON BY WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND PVA FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVES. WE'VE ENJOYED A COOL
BUT COMFORTABLE STRETCH OF WEATHER, WITH TEMPERATURES SET TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT FROST
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LAX
AS OF NOW, THEY ARE POISED TO FALL INTO LINE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED SLIGHTLY TO 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT AND LIMIT OUR
OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE AREA
FROM HAVING TOO EFFICIENT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COULD FURTHER
DISRUPT FROST FORMATION. BY SUNRISE, ANY REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND WELL INTO IOWA
AS ANOTHER COOLER DAY TAKES SHAPE AND TOPS TEMPERATURES OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. JOINING THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES AND SLIGHTLY GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL REACH 20 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND:
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, HELPING TO
USHER IN WEAK WINDS AND TAMP DOWN CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THE NIGHT
PREVIOUS. WITH THAT IN MIND, OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL
RESPOND TO THE MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-TO-MID 30S. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND
COLD WILL MAKE FOR A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FROST FORMATION, A
SETUP THAT FURTHER MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL, POTENTIALLY
NECESSITATING A FROST ADVISORY IF THE LACK OF CLOUDS HOLDS IN SHORT-
TERM MODELS. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, WE'LL SEE DAYTIME SHOWERS
MAKING THE MOST OF THE STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES BUT STRUGGLE
TO FORM ANYTHING LOCALLY, FOCUSING INSTEAD JUST TO THE NORTHEAST
WHERE SOME INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED THANKS TO BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SQUARELY OVERHEAD TO HELP REINFORCE ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST
AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS A WARMING TREND INTO THE FORECAST, BROUGHT
ABOUT BY A SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT AS A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST
INCREASES MID/UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS ARE SET TO REACH
THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH LITTLE SURFACE
MOISTURE RECOVERY COMPARED TO OUR RAINIER PREVIOUS WEEK. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL PUSH DOWN INTO THE LOWER
20S FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA, WITH OVERALL FIRE DANGER BEING
CURBED BY LIGHTER WINDS AND THE CONTINUED GREENUP THAT THE AREA HAS
UNDERGONE OVER THE PAST THREE WEEKS. CONTINUED WARMING THEN FOLLOWS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, AS THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SOFTENS THE NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PROGRESSES WHAT REMAINS OF THE RIDGE
EASTWARD, BEING SHOOED/DIMINISHED BY A CUTOFF LOW HEADED FOR THE
GREAT BASIN. RAIN CHANCE DON'T LOOK GREAT TO THIS POINT, BUT THE
COMBINATION OF THAT CUTOFF LOW AND THE TIMING OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
SHOOTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRY TO
PHASE TOGETHER AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH RAINFALL
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE (WITH
PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES AS TO WHAT IT WILL EVENTUALLY LOOK LIKE).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SHIFTING
MORE DUE NORTHERLY BY LATE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE,
GUSTING TO 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, DROPPING BACK DOWN
TOWARD 00-01Z THURSDAY EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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