800
FXUS63 KOAX 011710
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NIGHTLY FROST CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND A FREEZE IN SOME LOCATIONS
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT.
- OCCASIONAL SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (UNDER 20%) AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AND SUNDAY EVENING.
- HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN WARMING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO FEATURE ZONAL ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, WHILE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGS IN A BAND OF ASCENT INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THAT BAND OF ASCENT
IS WORKING WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF
SHALLOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THEM THAT EXTENDS FORM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. VERY LITTLE IF ANYTHING
WILL REACH THE GROUND, WITH THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INSTEAD BEING COOLING TEMPERATURES AND FROST FORMATION. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES ON THE INCREASE, WITH
WIND SPEEDS ALSO BECOMING LAX TO HELP INCREASE RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE SET TO FALL INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 30S,
MAKING MOST OF THE AREA READY FOR FROST FORMATION IN LOW-LYING
AREAS.
BY DAYBREAK, WE'LL START TO BEGIN COUPLING BACK AND BUILDING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER VERTICALLY TO INCREASE WINDS TO SIMILAR SPEEDS
EXPERIENCED TODAY. GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO MAKE THE ANTICIPATED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S FEEL
BRISK. ADDITIONAL DRY AIR FUNNELING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
VALUES HEADED FOR THE 20S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA, WITH THE
SPRING GREEN-UP LIMITING FIRE DANGER WITH THE FORECASTED WIND
SPEEDS. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANOTHER CALM NIGHT ARRIVES
AND OUR BEST CHANCES AT FROST AND EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL ARE SET TO
OCCUR. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS LOW AS 30 DEGREES AT
THEIR LOW POINT, WHICH COULD TREND EVEN INTO THE UPPER 20S IF
TEMPERATURES OVER-PERFORM COMPARED TO GUIDANCE THE PREVIOUS
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FREEZE WARNINGS WOULD BE
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO ONAWA, WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
UNDER THE GUN FOR FROST.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND:
SATURDAY HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE MID/UPPER PATTERN BEGIN
BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH SCOOTS EASTWARD. HIGHS WILL RESPOND IN KIND, PUSHING
INTO THE 60S/70S SATURDAY AND WELL INTO THE 70S SUNDAY/MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE PRETTY SLIM, WITH ANYTHING THAT
MODELS DO PUT OUT ENDING UP NEAR A TRACE AND A FAR CRY FROM ANYTHING
THAT WOULD HELP WITH THE DROUGHT IN PLACE. THE WINDS OF CHANGE
ARRIVE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY HEADING INTO TUESDAY, WHERE
UPPER 50S/60S RETURN AND A CUTOFF LOW TRIES TO PHASE WITH A DIGGING
LOBE OF THE PERSISTENT LOW TO THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE GENERAL AREA. LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES
ARE GOING TO KEEP ANY PROMISES FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL LIMITED. AT
THE VERY LEAST, THE NE/KS/IA/MO AREA WILL SEE SOME PROLONGED
RAINFALL HEADED TOWARDS MID-WEEK, BUT DETAILS AS TO EXACTLY WHERE IT
EXCEEDS WETTING AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN MURKY FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY AFTERNOON FL040
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH 00Z. SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE DIRECTION BECOMING VARIABLE AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING, AT SPEEDS
OF 5-10 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KG
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