481
FXUS63 KOAX 021035
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
535 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR A WIDESPREAD FROST AND A FREEZE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
- OCCASIONAL SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (20-40%) SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER
INFLUENCE CONTINUING TO SEQUESTER THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE
GULF COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE RIDGING BUILDS TO THE
WEST. WE FIND OURSELVES WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AT THE SURFACE WITH
NO CLOUD COVER INCOMING, MAKING FOR THE MOST EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING THAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO PLUNGE TO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND LOWER 30S IN IOWA/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH WEAKENING
WINDS AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FROST FORMATION LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY
IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT.
BY TOMORROW MORNING WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND START OUT
WESTERLY, ADDING AN ADIABATIC WARMING COMPONENT FROM THE SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. MID/UPPER HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE RISE AND WE'LL BENEFIT BY MIXING INTO WARMER AIR AS WELL,
SENDING HIGHS INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S. WITHOUT ANY BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE SOUTH, WE'LL CONTINUE TO LEAN DRY, BUT NOT WINDY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY MAJOR FIRE CONCERNS (ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
GREEN-UP). OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 40S,
GIVING FLOWER GARDENS AND OTHER PLANTS A BREAK FROM ANY FROSTY
CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
SUNDAY AND MONDAY HOLD THE WARMEST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST, AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN AND ITS REMNANTS MOVE OVERHEAD. A WEAK
BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND TRY TO MAKE FOR
SOME LOW-END RAINFALL CHANCES THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO
MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE IN TOTAL WHERE THEY DO END UP FALLING. THE
LATTER HALF OF MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE
BEST CHANCE THAT WE'LL HAVE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE REGION,
BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT THE
STALWART TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST PIVOT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
SLIGHTLY BEFORE A CUTOFF LOW ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS HAS
FAVORED A MORE SOUTHERLY EXTENT TO THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, FAVORING KANSAS AND MISSOURI FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL,
WHILE WE IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA GET GLANCES OF MOISTURE. THIS WILL
TURN HIGHS A BIT COOLER, INTO THE 50S/60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
TAFS WILL BE DRIVEN BY WIND CHANGES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GROW
MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SPEEDS INCREASE. OVERNIGHT,
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH A 40 KNOT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SURFACE WINDS AND THOSE FOUND AT FL015.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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