856
FXUS63 KOAX 031702
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1202 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE (50-70%) IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FROST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MILD TEMPERATURES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S, A WELCOMED CHANGE FROM THE FREEZING
TEMPS OF THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH. BY NOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES
MORE THAN YESTERDAY, INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, DESPITE THE
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY, BUT RAIN STRUGGLED TO REACH THE SURFACE
THROUGH A LAYER OF MOISTURE-STARVED AIR.
RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY INCREASE AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA, TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES, AND PULL ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S
AND LOW 80S. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (50-70%) ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA. WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF
MOISTURE, 40+ KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE UPDRAFTS OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
OUR OVERALL SEVERE RISK WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
LINGERING SHOWERS SLIDE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY, AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENTLY
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN, WITH THIS WAVE, LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA, WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS KANSAS.
AN EXTRA SURGE OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROSTY CONDITIONS REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY, BUT
RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S THURSDAY, AS A RIDGE
REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE, IN THE 70S, THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT TODAY. EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT, BEFORE THEY RETURN TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY
MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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