515
FXUS63 KOAX 041859
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
159 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (50-70%), ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, WITH HAIL AND WIND THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS, THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHEAST.
- FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA, MOVING THROUGH OMAHA AS OF AROUND 130 PM.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS STARTING TO PUFF
UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO START
INCREASING AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING DOWNSTREAM,
THERE'S AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN PLACE OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA, SO MAY EVENTUALLY GET SOME STORMS TO
GO UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S),
IT SEEMS LIKE IT'LL BE AWFULLY TOUGH TO GET MUCH IN OUR AREA
COMPARED TO WHERE THERE ARE 50S DEWPOINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
KANSAS CITY. STILL, IF WE DO GET SOMETHING, THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND
PLENTY OF DCAPE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT ON AND
OFF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS
SOUTH AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE DRY
AIR DOES REMAIN IN PLACE, SO AGAIN, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT'LL
AMOUNT TO MUCH. MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR MOST AND
PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER BEFORE IT
EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE MUCH COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, COULD SEE SOME FROST
FORMATION IN PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
FREEZE IN NORTHEAST NE (FREEZE WOULD LIKELY BE TUESDAY NIGHT).
THE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WE'RE CURRENTLY UNDER WILL
GET CLOSER TO PHASING UP TOWARD WEDNESDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW OFF
THE CA COAST PUSHES EASTWARD AND A WAVE SWINGS SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS OVER CO, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT WILL
SLIDE BY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WE'LL REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL BITS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH AT VARIOUS TIMES AND GIVING US
ON AND OFF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. STILL LOTS OF SPREAD IN
TIMING AND EXACT TRACK, BUT LAST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
(30-50% CHANCE). TEMPERATURE-WISE, WE'LL START TO WARM BACK UP
THURSDAY, WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD 70S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUIDANCE FAVORS A SLIGHT COOLDOWN WITH THE
PRECIP ON SUNDAY, BUT STILL MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AROUND 7000-10000 FT AGL AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF
DIP TO MVFR VISIBILITY WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO, HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES, BUT STILL GIVE IT A 10-20% CHANCE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE SPEEDS DROP BELOW 10 KTS THIS EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page