195
FXUS63 KOAX 051835
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
135 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REMAINING LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE AREA, WITH ANYTHING THAT DOES REACH THE GROUND STAYING
CLOSE TO A TRACE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
FROST POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (40-70%)
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS SQUASHING MOST OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW SOUTH OF THE
AREA, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLER
CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE AREA AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
YESTERDAY, WITH 50S AND 60S ON TAP FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
UNDERNEATH A BUILDING CUMULUS FIELD AND MID/UPPER CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO WAFT BY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. EMBEDDED IN THOSE
MID/UPPER CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY, THAT HAS
ONLY AMOUNTED IN TRACE MEASUREMENTS, AND IS SET TO FURTHER DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY. OUR CONTINUE GREEN-UP CONTINUES TO TAMP DOWN FIRE
DANGER, WITH RH VALUES IN THE 25-35% THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN DRIER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK NEEDING STRONGER WINDS TO CAUSE CONCERN.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE NORTHERLY WIND WILL FUNNEL
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA, WITH 30S EXPECTED AT OUR LOWEST. CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT COULD KEEP US FROM COOLING TOO MUCH, AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON THE CHILLY SIDE OF GUIDANCE -- MEANING IF WE REALIZE
IT OR COOLER, NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A
HANDFUL OF COUNTIES. WINDS SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST
FORMATION LIMITED, MAKING A FROST ADVISORY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND:
MOVING FORWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TO THE WEST PUSH TO THE EAST, BUT STRUGGLE TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS IT IS STEERED SOUTHEAST UNDERNEATH THE STOUT
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. WE'LL BE STUCK IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES MAKING OR
BREAKING ON WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT WILL ONLY AMOUNT TO MEAGER RAINFALL
IF THEY DO END UP PRECIPITATING. THE AREA'S MOST WIDESPREAD CHANCE
AT RAINFALL ARRIVES FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA SATURDAY, WITH
QUITE A BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM EXISTING IN IT'S PLACEMENT. THE TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL STILL BE CONTINUING TO SWIRL OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, AND WILL REPEL SYSTEMS AWAY FROM MOVING TOO FAR EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOL
WEDNESDAY, AND THEN START A SLOW CLIMB THAT CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT
7 DAYS AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS
OCCURRING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT, VARYING SOMEWHAT IN DIRECTION BUT LEANING NORTHERLY,
BEFORE RETURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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