159
FXUS63 KOAX 061848
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
148 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FROST IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY TONIGHT, AS A SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS LIMIT
WIDESPREAD CHANCES.
- A LOW CHANCE (10-15%) OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING,
LIMITED BY DRY AIR.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE BACK INTO THE 70S TO LOW
80S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
(30-60%) SATURDAY THAT FAVOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DOES A FINE JOB ILLUSTRATING THE
LARGELY DEPRESSED MID/UPPER PATTERN THAT CONTINUES TO SHUNT MOST OF
THE COUNTRY'S WEATHER ACTIVITY TO ITS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN-MOST
TIERS OF STATES, WHILE A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH NEBRASKA AND IOWA BEING ON
THE INTERIOR SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH, COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE HIGHS
CONTINUE TODAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AS BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST REMAINS FROST POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT, AS LOWS FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP. THE THREE THINGS THAT WILL DISCOURAGE
FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 5-10
MPH AFTER 1 AM, A LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE AS DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW-TO-MID 20S, AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THAT MAY OVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WITH THOSE
FACTORS IN MIND, WE ARE CURRENTLY GOING WITHOUT A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH NO STRONG OVERLAP OF FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS BEFORE WINDS INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
STEPPING FORWARD INTO THURSDAY, DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL (WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS 68-72 DEGREES). ANOTHER WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE SCOOTS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. AS THIS HAPPENS, EXPECT INCREASED
CLOUD COVER, BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AS LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
PROVES TO BE TOO MUCH FOR ANY HOPEFUL RAIN DROPS TRYING TO REACH
THE GROUND. HIGHS ARE ON TAP TO REACH THE LOW-TO-MID 70S
THURSDAY, AND WILL ONLY CLIMB HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
TOPPING OUT SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO JUST OVER 80 DEGREES.
OUR DRY SPELL WILL BE TESTED SATURDAY, WHERE THE WEAKENING
INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTH ATTEMPTS TO STEER A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS CREPT THE AXIS OF
RAINFALL SOUTHWARD, PRIMARILY JUST NORTH OF OR ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER (GREAT FOR WEEKEND OUTDOOR EVENTS, BUT
NOT GREAT FOR CATCHING UP FOR LOST RAINFALL). WITH ITS PASSAGE,
WE'LL SEE A COOLER BUT NEAR-NORMAL SUNDAY, WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
STAYING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK HAS STRONG SUPPORT
FOR A BUILDING, NEGATIVELY-TILTED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS WHILE THE EASTERN THIRD SEES SHORTWAVES REPLACING ONE
ANOTHER TO MAINTAIN A TROUGH OVER THAT SECTION. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN SURGE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
ONLY BEING INTERRUPTED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THAT
WILL KEEP US FROM WARMING TOO MUCH BEFORE COMING BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CARRY US THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS REACHING NEAR TO
JUST OVER 20 KTS UNDERNEATH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 00Z, BECOMING GOING FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DIRECTIONS ALL FALL IN LINE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN INCREASE SLIGHTLY
IN SPEED AFTER 06Z, WITH GUSTS RETURNING FOR KLNK DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND JUST
AFTER, WINDS WILL BE UNDERGOING ANOTHER DIRECTION CHANGE TO BE
NORTHWESTERLY ONCE AGAIN MID-AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PEARSON
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