017
FXUS63 KOAX 081858
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
158 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA/IOWA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK OFF ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY.
- OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY CLIPPING EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- EXPECT A RETURN TO THE 80S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. A WEAK, EMBEDDED
IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS, KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. DRY
AIR IN THE REGION HAS THUS FAR LIMITED PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND. MADE A LOW END ADDITION (<14%) FOR POPS TO MENTION SPRINKLES
BUT DON'T EXPECT MUCH IF ANYTHING TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, GUSTING AT TIMES TO AROUND
20-25MPH. RH VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 20S. HIGH FIRE DANGER MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
DAKOTAS. THIS MAY KICK OFF A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH TOWARD
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA (NE/KS/CO) DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCAL POINT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE DRYLINE SHOULD STAY TO OUR
WEST, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME COOLER AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION, AFFECTING HIGHS IN THE NORTH. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO NORTH BEND TO
ONAWA. AREAS WHERE THE FRONT DOES NOT REACH EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
RISE INTO THE 80S. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL LACK WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO NEED A RED FLAG WARNING.
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE THE STRONGER WINDS BUT POSSIBLY SOME
HIGHER RH VALUES IN SPOTS. SATURDAY EVENING, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST
AROUND 5-15MPH.
AS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AN UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE PACNW AND WILL MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA,
POSSIBLY CLIPPING WESTERN IOWA AND EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH WAA IN
THE REGION. EXPECT A RETURN TO THE 80S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT KOFK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS. THESE SHOULD
STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF KLNK. WITH AS DRY AS THE AIR IS, ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW
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