817
FXUS63 KOAX 091732
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY (20-40% CHANCE, HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-80).
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE 40-50 MPH GUSTS.
- WARMING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AND MAYBE A
FEW LOWER 90S, ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY.
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER
ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK, WITH ONLY SMALL RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY (10%) AND THURSDAY/FRIDAY (15-30%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT WORKING SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA, PASSING THROUGH LINCOLN AROUND NOON. SOME LIGHT
RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE SHOWING UP ON RADAR, BUT NOT MUCH
WAS REACHING THE GROUND PER LATEST OBS, WITH THE 18Z OAX
SOUNDING SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. TO THE WEST, SOME
MORE ROBUST SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NE AS SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS SLIDING THROUGH. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE
EASTWARD AND BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. COULD EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT A
LITTLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. IN ADDITION, A FEW CAMS HINT AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A GOOD INVERTED-V
SIGNAL. AS FAR AS PRECIP AMOUNTS, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN MOST PLACES,
BUT MAYBE A STORM OR TWO ARE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A TENTH OF AN
INCH.
FOR SUNDAY, WE'LL BE A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S, THOUGH THAT'S STILL RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. COULD ALSO SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
AS WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING THROUGH, THOUGH MODEL
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW LOTS OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, SO VERY LITTLE, IF
ANYTHING IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE.
A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL START TO PUSH
EASTWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S MOST DAYS,
WITH SOME SPOTS PERHAPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 ON OCCASION. BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY, GEFS/EPS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PROBABILITY FOR 90+
DEGREE HIGHS WILL INCREASE TO 20-60% ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
AREA. WHILE IT WILL GENERALLY BE A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY HEAT WITH
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S AND RH DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED
FIRE DANGER ON ANY BREEZIER DAYS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NE WHERE
FUELS REMAIN DRY. CURRENTLY, THE WINDIEST DAYS ARE PROGGED TO BE
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHEN EPS MEAN WIND GUSTS EXCEED 30 MPH IN AT
LEAST PART OF THE AREA.
FINALLY, PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK LOOK FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN
THE BUILDING RIDGING, THOUGH THERE ARE A COUPLE TIMES TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. FIRST IS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW SLIDE ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER AND INTO MN, DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, NOT MUCH
MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH AND STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL BE NEAR THE LOW/WAVE, BUT A DECENT AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS SOME VERY LIGHT QPF COULD CLIP US (10% CHANCE). ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOK TO SLIDE THROUGH SOMETIME
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, THOUGH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON EXACT
TIMING. GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT SOME BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
INSTABILITY IN THAT TIMEFRAME, SO COULD SEE SOME STORMS, AND VARIOUS
MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTS ARE PAINTING SOME 5-15%
PROBABILITIES ACROSS OUR AREA. STILL LOTS OF DETAILS TO FIGURE OUT
THOUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING CLOUDS
AROUND 8000-12000 FT AGL. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES AT LNK THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE
PRECIP. IF A HEAVIER SHOWER HAPPENS TO MOVE OVER, COULD SEE A
BRIEF GUST OF 30-40 KTS. ALSO, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT HIGHEST CHANCES ARE TRENDING SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS. SPEEDS COME DOWN THIS
EVENING, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, BUT DIRECTION SHOULD SETTLE IN AFTER SUNRISE,
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AT OFK, NORTHWESTERLY AT OMA, AND
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AT LNK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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