886
FXUS63 KOAX 241728
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1228 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH A
THREAT OF 2" HAIL.
- A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY NOON, UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE INTO THE
80S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE INTO THE MID CONUS THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS. SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW 500-
1000 J/KG OF CAPE TO BUILD INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, IN ADDITION TO
30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. AS OF NOON
TODAY, CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
DEVELOPING A FEW ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, A FEW OF THEM MAY BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WHILE LCLS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH, A TORNADO
OR TWO CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, WITH NOTABLE CURVATURE IN
HODOGRAPHS.
ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDNIGHT, WITH QUIET WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND A LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS A LINGERING BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (20-
30%), BUT ANY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE STUNTED BY WEAK SHEAR
AND A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK,
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING BY THE WEEKEND. GULF
MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE NATION'S MIDSECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, PROVIDING NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS COULD RISE TO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OR HIGHER OF CLIMATOLOGY, RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK,
DIPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 KTS. A
FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, POTENTIALLY EFFECTING KOFK BETWEEN
02-05Z. STORMS WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT, WITH
LLWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE AREA. LLWS LOOKS LIKELY
AT KOFK BETWEEN 05-12Z MONDAY MORNING. KOMA AND KLNK WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF LLWS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS BETWEEN 06-12Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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