762
FXUS63 KOAX 251026
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
526 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER YET FOR MONDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH A
THREAT OF 1" HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS.
- A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS MOSTLY ZONAL WITH A TROF EAST
OF HERE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THAT'S EASY
TO SEE IN FORECAST CHARTS, BUT YOU HAVE TO SQUINT TO SEE A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT BROAD ZONAL FLOW. IT'S PRODUCED A
SFC LOW AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER JUST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
SD BORDER, BUT THE DRIER AIR IN NEBRASKA AND BEING FARTHER
DISPLACED FROM THE BEST LIFT UP NORTH HAS KEPT THINGS QUIETER
HERE. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS CANCELLED EARLY AS
EVEN THE NOCTURNAL JET RAMPING UP COULDN'T PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE BATTLING
WITH THE WAA PRODUCED BY THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD
SETTLE ON A LOW IN THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST.
MONDAY/MEMORIAL DAY
THE WARMING TREND CULMINATES WITH A SUNNY AFTERNOON OF HIGHS IN
THE MID- TO UPPER 80S. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDER AND CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (LIKE TODAY). STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
IS MISSING (LIKE TODAY), BUT THERE IS SOME SFC CONVERGENCE (LIKE
TODAY), AND SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST (LIKE TODAY) THAT ANY
STORM THAT CAN GET GOING MAY GROW LARGE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. POPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OUR AREA ARE 15-30%, WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOWER AT
5-10%. LINCOLN, OMAHA, AND WESTERN IOWA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
DRY.
TUESDAY
ANOTHER TOASTY ONE IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS A LOT LIKE THOSE
RECORDED MONDAY. IT'LL FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE DAY IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY AS RIDGING BACK-BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST
AND HEIGHTS RISE. AS THE RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWEST OVER THE
CUTOFF LOW WHIRLING OVER THE SIERRAS.
WEDNESDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CURRENTLY PROGGED TO FALL SHY -
LAYING ACROSS IA/MN ON WEDNESDAY - IT WOULD LEAVE US WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LEAVING TEMPS COOLER FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD HELP PRODUCE
SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. A FEW ROUNDS OF PRECIP WOULD BE
WELCOMED. HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS SEEM TO BE DECREASING OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN CHANCES ARE NARROWING TO
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE THURSDAY (80% SOUTH) AND
FRIDAY (60% EVERYWHERE).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED FOR THE START OF THE TAF CYCLE AND
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS. THE GUSTINESS
SUBSIDES THIS EVENING WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE SOUTH BUT
LESS THAN 12 KTS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KBVN TO
KOFK TO KLCG AFTER 00Z. CHANCES REMAIN AT 15 TO 30% FOR STORMS
AT THIS TIME. IF THEY DO DEVELOP, A FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTIONS OF LOWER
CEILINGS TO 9,000 FT AT KOFK AND NO -TSRA GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR OCCURRENCE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REDEVELOPS AT KOFK LATE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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