591
FXUS63 KOAX 260427
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1127 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. MOST WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND HAVE BEEN FALLING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THE UPPER PATTERN, AS REVEALED BY GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY, REVEALS A CUT-OFF LOW DRIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST AS A
CONTRACTED RIDGE BACK-BUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE KOAX
RADAR WAVES ARE REFLECTED BACK TO VALLEY, NE BY SOME
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE AS THE
STORMS CONTINUE NORTHEAST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPS REMAIN ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND
NORTHWEST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. EACH DAY'S SKIES SHOULD BE
AVERAGING LESS THAN FOUR OKTAS OF CLOUD COVER. (IT'LL BE PARTLY
SUNNY.) PRECIP CHANCES FOR BOTH DAYS HAVE SLIPPED OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND FROM "SCATTERED" TO BELOW 10%.
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
PRECIP CHANCES WERE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY, BUT ARE
FALLING CONSISTENTLY FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. WITH THE CUT-
OFF LOW BEGINNING TO KICK- OUT FROM THE WEST COAST AND A
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THERE, LIKELY POPS ARE
EXPECTED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS, BUT ONLY
ISOLATED (10-15%) POPS ARE EXPECTED IN OAX'S SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. UNFORTUNATELY, THAT DRIER TREND HOLDS TRUE FOR FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND PROPER, TOO. EARLIER FORECASTS CALLING FOR
50-70% POPS ARE LONG GONE. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, NBM POPS AT
OMAHA FOR THURSDAY HAVE SLIPPED FROM 50% TO LESS THAN 10%. NOW
POPS HIT THEIR ZENITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 15-25% FOR AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF OMAHA.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, TOO. THE CUT-OFF LOW OUT WEST
WILL WEAKEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST.
WITH THE FLOODING THREAT NOW NEGLIGIBLE, WE TURN OUR ATTENTION
TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE SPC DOES NOT CURRENTLY HAVE THE
AREA HIGHLIGHTED WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CONCERNS OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NEXT 8 DAYS WHILE MACHINE-LEARNING FORECASTS FROM NCAR AND
CSU CORROBORATE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIPPING OVER THIS PERIOD FROM MID-80S ON
THURSDAY TO LOWER-80S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LONGER RANGE FORECASTS SUGGEST THE BEGINNING OF JUNE 2026 WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK SUGGESTS THE OMAHA METRO HAS A 54%
CHANCE THAT JUNE 2-8 WILL END UP WARMER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
T-STRORMS MAY DEVELOP IN FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE KOFK TAF SITE. LNK AND OMA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY, TOO. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
5-15 KNOTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WRAPPING UP BY
2AM. BY THEN, LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVER KOFK WHERE 43 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST AT FL015.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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