213
FXUS63 KOAX 282329
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY
EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING WILL BE RARE WITH IT.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY, RETURNING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS, WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN, WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND DAILY RAIN/WEAK STORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN,
FEATURING STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, A SPINNING CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION, AND A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE
FUNNELING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
MONTANA. WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES OF THE UPPER PATTERN BEING SOMEWHAT
STEADY-STATE, WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL BE DOING THE BRUNT OF THE WEATHER MAKING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALREADY NOW, LIGHTER RAINFALL IS
BUILDING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS, POISED TO
CONTINUE CREEPING NORTHWARD. DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES, WE'RE STILL
REACHING INTO ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TERRITORY IN THE 80S WHILE
WINDS GUST INTERMITTENTLY TO 20-25 MPH. BETTER RAINFALL COVERAGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA 6 PM INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BUT BY NO
MEANS WILL IT BE A GULLY WASHER.
LINGERING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
GETTING BUMPED UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST DUE TO THE INSULATION
FROM ABOVE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY THE CLOUD
COVER AND LINGERING RAIN CHANCES, AS WE TOP OUT IN IN THE 70S AND
SEE THOSE RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DISSOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. GETTING A
BIT MORE SPECIFIC TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNT-WISE, AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO LINCOLN HAVE A GREATER THAN 50%
SHOT AT GETTING HALF OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORTUNATELY, THE COMBINATION OF THE WARMER PATTERN AND THE GENERAL
LACK OF LIGHTING AND HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP OUTDOOR PLANS FROM
BEING CANCELLED.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND:
CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION HELPS SCATTERED STORM
ACTIVITY JUMP UPWARDS INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY. WITH EFFECTIVE
PARCELS CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE, SHEAR
WILL BE ON THE LOWER END, MAKING SEVERE CHANCES QUITE LOW. ONCE WE
BEGIN COUPLING BACK UP AFTER SUNRISE, THOSE STORM CHANCES WILL
DISSIPATE IN FAVOR OF A DRIER AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY STORM
CHANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA,
WHERE SEVERE WIND/HAIL CHANCES ARE FOCUSED.
SUNDAY LEANS DRIER COMPARED TO SATURDAY, WITH THE MAIN CUTOFF LOW
DRIVING THE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND THAT BETTER
STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO IT SHIFTS IN TANDEM. LARGE-SCALE GLOBAL
MODELS FAVOR FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA AND POINTS NORTHWARD
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH TEMPERATURES SHIFTING BACK INTO THE 80S
COMPARED TO THE COUPLE OF COOLER DAYS PRECEDING IT. THOSE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY FORWARD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO HOLD STRONG OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS,
GRADUALLY FLATTENING OUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO BE A NEARLY DAILY OCCURRENCE, WITH ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEHAVING AS THEY WOULD IN THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER -- POPPING UP ALONG AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE BEFORE GENTLY BEING STEERED THROUGH BY THE MEAN FLOW
AND ALONG THETA-E AXES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO START, BUT MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
SOME IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITY ALSO LOOK POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY AT LNK. RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO LATE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING A BIT. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ONE MOVING OVER A TAF SITE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TS
CHANCES REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT NOT 0,
WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL BEING WITH THE SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY,
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...CA
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