366
FXUS63 KOAX 291710
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
DIMINISHING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY, RETURNING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS, WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN, WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS EVENING FEATURED RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH A TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER CA.
HOWEVER, THERE WAS ALSO A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL KS
HELPING TO USHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND LEAD TO RAIN OVERSPREADING
THE AREA. WHILE RADAR WAS A LITTLE MISLEADING, WITH MANY OF THE
RETURNS NOT REACHING THE GROUND OWING TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT/LOW CONTINUING TO PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED, SO ANY RUMBLES OF
THUNDER SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AS THEY HAVE BEEN ALL EVENING,
BUT STILL COULD HAVE A FEW AT TIMES INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
PUSHES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAPERS OFF. HOWEVER,
BUILDING INSTABILITY AND JUST ENOUGH LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COULD YIELD SOME VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY,
SEVERE STORMS LOOK UNLIKELY (UNDER 5% CHANCE). OTHERWISE, CLOUDY
SKIES AND PRECIP WILL KEEP US COOLER (BUT A LITTLE MUGGY), WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WE'LL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO
WHAT WE SAW TONIGHT AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO THE AREA AND LEADS TO INCREASING SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK SO SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. ONCE AGAIN, STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT A
FEW SPOTTY STORMS COULD LINGER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER, WITH SOME SPOTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
EVEN MORE STORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES
AND A SURFACE LOW SPINS UP OVER EASTERN CO, MOVING INTO KS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN NE/KS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
TO LATE EVENING. WITH LACK OF SHEAR, SEEMS LIKE THEY'LL HAVE TROUBLE
MAINTAINING THIS FAR EAST AND FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, CAMS THAT GO OUT
THAT FAR TEND TO AGREE, WITH STORMS MOSTLY DYING BEFORE GETTING
HERE.
THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY, THOUGH LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER US WITH PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO YIELD SOME AFTERNOON
STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WOULD SUGGEST
THINGS COULD BE A LITTLE LIMITED. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY, AND WITH
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70, IT WON'T BE THE MOST PLEASANT DAY TO BE
OUTSIDE.
WE'LL STAY IN THIS PATTERN WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, WITH VARIOUS BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING THROUGH AND LEADING TO DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT, GIVEN THE PATTERN AND CONTINUED LACK OF
SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FOR US DON'T LOOK PARTICULARLY HIGH,
BUT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE, WOULDN'T RULE
IT OUT ON ANY GIVEN DAY. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, VARIOUS MACHINE
LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER ALGORITHMS DO SHOW AT LEAST 5% CHANCES
SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW
CEILINGS, PRIMARILY MVFR, ARE SLOWLY SCATTERING AND LIFTING
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE OCCASIONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, OFK IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
MVFR WITH LNK PREDOMINATELY HOLDING AT VFR. OMA REMAINS VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR TAF
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, LOWERING CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z WITH MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST, BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUED
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TAF IMPACTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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