430
FXUS63 KOAX 291823
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
123 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS EARLY
SATURDAY, RETURNING DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
- NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN, WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND DAILY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
MORNING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GREATEST FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THAT BEING SAID, A BROAD MCV IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS AND IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. WHILE
THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING, AGITATED CUMULUS INDICATES
THAT LINGERING CONVERGENCE COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT
REMAINS LOW (15-30% CHANCE) ACROSS THE AREA WITH COVERAGE BEING
SPOTTY AT BEST. CLOUD COVER FROM MORNING SHOWERS KEEPS IT COOLER,
THOUGH A BIT MUGGY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR REGION TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS CAPTURED WELL IN MORNING
CAM GUIDANCE, SHOWING OUR NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, BUT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL DURING THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN, THE BETTER
FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
HEADING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON LIMITING RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME. THAT SAID, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, WEAKENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS COULD
REACH THE AREA, BUT LIMITED WIND SHEAR TENDS TO DISSIPATE THIS
BEFORE IT GETS THAT FAR EAST. A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
SUPPORTING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR THAT MAY LIMIT THESE RAIN CHANCES, IS A BUILDING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY KEEP OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY LOWER (20-50% CHANCE). AGAIN, WIND SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK, BUT BUILDING INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM.
NEXT WEEK SEES THE GRADUAL BUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS BUILDING FEATURE GRADUALLY WARMS HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 80S NEXT WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEAR DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THE BUILDING RIDGE MAY HAMPER THESE CHANCES
GOING FORWARD. UNFORTUNATELY, THE BUILDING RIDGE IS A HARBINGER OF
THINGS TO COME AS INCREASING HEAT APPEARS LIKELY HEADING INTO THE
SECOND WEEK OF JUNE BASED ON MID-RANGE GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW
CEILINGS, PRIMARILY MVFR, ARE SLOWLY SCATTERING AND LIFTING
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE OCCASIONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, OFK IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
MVFR WITH LNK PREDOMINATELY HOLDING AT VFR. OMA REMAINS VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR TAF
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, LOWERING CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z WITH MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST, BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUED
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TAF IMPACTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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