486
FXUS63 KOAX 300337
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1037 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NIGHTLY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
- A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SETTING UP NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP WARM,
HUMID WEATHER IN PLACE WITH ADDITIONAL DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR HOTTER WEATHER JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD
STARTING NEXT WEEKEND GOING INTO FOLLOWING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A MCV IS MOVING NORTH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING,
GENERATING THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONALLY FLARING UP NEW
CONVECTION. WEAK SHEAR KEEP THESE STORMS SHORT-LIVED AND WEAK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHWARD, NOT CLEARING OUR AREA
UNTIL CLOSER TO 5AM. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING
ROBUST STORMS ALONG A LINE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING. THESE ARE MOSTLY BEING FORCED BY THE NOSE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. WE'LL BE
WATCHING THESE STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD OUR AREA. CAM GUIDANCE WANTS TO PULL THESE STORMS
EASTWARD AT THE LAST MINUTE AS IT APPROACHES THE NEBRASKA STATE
LINE, LIKELY DUE TO WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY STRONGER STORMS FROM GETTING INTO
OUR AREA, OR IF THEY DO, SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE ANOTHER BAND OF STORMS DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA, THOUGH, MOSTLY EXITING THE AREA BY 10
AM.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER MUGGY, WARM DAY WITH AIR AS
THICK AS PEA SOUP. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW 80S,
DEW POINTS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S ARE GOING TO MAKE YOU SWEAT.
WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND, WE'LL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
POP UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED. WHAT
WE'RE WATCHING MORE CLOSELY IS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA AROUND MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE WIND
AND HAIL, AS STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IS
A CONVECTIVE LINE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY EVENING AND PUSH EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS IT LIFTING NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS WELL FROM
THIS MCS, MAINLY CLOSER TO 5-7 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
INTO THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA, PULLING DRIER AIR EAST INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, CLEARING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DRY
LINE AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS AS RIDGING
STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
DOWN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH EXPANDING EASTWARD,
WE POTENTIALLY COULD SEE A MOISTURE STREAM SNEAK BACK NORTH INTO
OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. THIS COULD MEAN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WEAKENING AS
IT CONTINUES EAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
AS WE GO INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, WE CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG
RIDGING BUILD UP JUST EAST OF OUR AREA, LEADING TO A FAIRLY GOOD
OVERNIGHT MCS PATTERN. MOISTURE STREAMING UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM THE GULF WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON STORMS AGAIN OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY, DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS AND PUSHING EAST
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES THE RIDGE FURTHER EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, PUSHING THE MOISTURE STREAM FARTHER EAST, BRINGING
AFTERNOON STORM POTENTIAL INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY,
DEVELOPING INTO AND MCS THAT PUSHES EAST INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BLOCKING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD UP NEXT
WEEKEND, LIKELY BRINGING HOT SUMMER CONDITIONS STARTING A COUPLE
WEEKS EARLY. CPC IS ON BOARD WITH THIS FORECAST, PREDICTING A
60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 8-14
DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. CIGS AROUND
4000-6000FT WITH A FEW AREAS WITH SCT LOWER CIGS AROUND 2500FT.
EXPECT CIGS TO START TO SINK AROUND 00Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY BY 06Z AT KOFK AND KLNK, AND CLOSER TO 09Z AT KOMA. A
LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT IMPACTING KOFK AND KLNK AROUND 08-10Z, WITH A LOWER
CHANCE (40%) OF STORMS AT KOFK THAN KLNK (80%). THIS LIKE WILL
MOVE THROUGH KOMA AROUND 09-11Z (80% CHANCE). WE'LL SEE CIGS
IMPROVE AT KLNK AFTER THE STORMS CLEAR, BUT KOMA AND KOFK WILL
LIKELY STAY MVFR/IFR THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR TOWARD 18Z, AND WINDS GUSTING 20-25KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page