817
FXUS63 KOAX 302317
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
- A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SETTING UP NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP WARM AND
MUGGY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH ADDITIONAL DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HOTTER WEATHER JUST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD STARTING NEXT WEEKEND GOING INTO FOLLOWING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR MANY. LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY
275, THE OMAHA METRO, AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SAW RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING ONE INCH. THE SYSTEM THAT RESULTED IN THIS RAINFALL
HAS NOW LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A QUIET PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE IT WILL BE MUGGY,
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S SHOULDN'T
SPOIL ANY SATURDAY PLANS.
OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE
REGION AFTERNOON SUNSET LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATER TODAY, THIS WILL HELP
TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO AN
ARCING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACHES OUR AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. WITH INSTABILITY WANING AFTER SUNSET AND WEAK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR, THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND BY
THEN. THAT SAID, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CLARINDA, TO OMAHA, AND INTO
NELIGH. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A WIDE RANGE OF RAINFALL
TOTALS APPEARS LIKELY, WITH AREAS THAT RECEIVE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO
INCHES. AREAS THAT GET MISSED BY THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY ONLY
SEE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL THOUGH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OR CLEAR THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH QUIETER WEATHER RETURNING BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MUCH OF SUNDAY APPEARS DRY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING A CAP
ON ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE
OVERNIGHT SYSTEM. IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. WITHOUT AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
TO HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS, WE WILL RELY ON SUBTLE AREAS OF
CONVERGENCE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. AT THE MOMENT,
MUCH OF THE AREA MAINTAINS A LOW (15-40%) CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN KEEPS
TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE 80S AND CONDITIONS MUGGY. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE, BUT LIMITED FORCING TO HELP INITIATE THESE SHOULD KEEP
COVERAGE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THAT SAID, MOST DAYS SEE A LOW TO
MEDIUM (15-50%) CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE HEAT ONLY LOOKS TO BUILD BY NEXT WEEKEND AND
BEYOND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOVING
NORTH AND WILL IMPACT KOFK FOR ABOUT 30 MINUTES STARTING AROUND
0030Z. A LINE OF STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA, IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
AROUND 03-07Z. ONCE STORMS CLEAR, EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO AROUND
FL100 BEFORE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 11-13Z.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AROUND 20-21Z
SUNDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...MCCOY
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