058
FXUS63 KOAX 310438
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SETS UP NEXT WEEK KEEPING WARM AND
MUGGY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH ADDITIONAL DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR HOTTER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND,
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM OREGON
EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAKER SHEAR THOUGH WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER-SIZE. 00Z CAMS HAVE COME IN
PREDICTING THIS LINE WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WITH REDEVELOPMENT AS THE TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES CLOSER TO
1-3AM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AGAIN, WE COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT, BUT WITH LIMITED SHEAR
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR OUR AREA AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING IN SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE
STAY IN A FAIRLY BAROCLINIC PATTERN NEAR THE NOSE OF A JET
STREAK STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EAST INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS JET STREAK SHIFTS NORTH ON MONDAY AS WE START TO
SEE RIDGING BUILD UP OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WE SEE PRECIP CHANCES DROP OFF AND CLEARING SKIES ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE STREAMS UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE,
GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
ON MONDAY EVENING, DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
HOW THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL EVOLVE AND TRACK THIS FAR OUT,
BUT WE COULD SEE SOME POTENTIAL STORMS OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY IF IT TRACKS EAST INTO OUR AREA.
AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK, WE SEE THE WEST-EAST TROUGH AXIS FROM
SUNDAY CUT OFF, HOLDING IN PLACE AND SPINNING, FORCING RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO MIDWEEK. TUESDAY, THE EVENING
STORM DEVELOPMENT SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN OVERNIGHT MCS TRACKING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THIS DEVELOPMENT. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY THE RIDGE SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT THE BELT OF MOISTURE SETS UP OVER OUR AREA. THIS MEANS
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WE SEE A POTENT JET STREAK AND
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSH INTO THE PACNW. THIS FINALLY FORCES
TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD, DAMPENING THE
RIDGE AND FORCING IT EASTWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WE'VE
SEEN AN INTERESTING SHIFT IN THE PATTERN GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, NOW SEEING RIDGING SET UP FARTHER NORTH
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IF THIS OCCURS, WHILE WE WILL STILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CLIMBING INTO AT
LEAST THE UPPER 80S-LOW 90S, STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT UNDER HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CEILINGS
DECREASE, BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS LATER THIS
MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW (40% CHANCE) IN AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING NORTHWARD, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KOMA
AND KLNK, BETWEEN 30/10-15Z. THIS CHANCE HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE, AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE AS NEEDED.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 12-14 KTS WITH ISOLATED
STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS STORMS PASS THROUGH. CEILINGS WILL
BREAK UP AND IMPROVE AFTER 13/12Z, BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...WOOD
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