589
FXUS63 KOAX 011030
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
530 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REGULAR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH
MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
- A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SETS UP NEXT WEEK KEEPING WARM AND MUGGY
WEATHER IN PLACE WITH ADDITIONAL DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WE'VE SEEN A COUPLE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING, SOME
ALONG A BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM ONGOING STORMS IN SOUTH
DAKOTA, AND A COUPLE OTHERS AROUND THE OMAHA/COUNCIL BLUFFS
AREA. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS MAKING STORM DEVELOPMENT DIFFICULT,
THOUGH IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THERE IS 2000J/KG+ OF CAPE, AND
1400J/KG OF DCAPE. SHEAR IS MODEST (75M2/S2 OF SFC-1KM SRH),
LENDING TO OBSERVED STORMS NOT HOLDING TOGETHER LONG, BUT
OCCASIONAL LOW-TO-MID LEVEL ROTATION WAS OBSERVED IN THE
EARLIER CELL OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE LOW TORNADO THREAT IS ONLY
DIMINISHING, MAKING PRIMARY HAZARDS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 5AM,
WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY MORNING.
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD UP ON MONDAY OVER OUR AREA WITH
SUBSIDENCE DAMPENING STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE A
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER OUR AREA. CAMS SHOW A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SO INTRODUCED A 15-20% CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE
TRIGGERS CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON,
LIKELY DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS COULD
BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY, THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE HAS IT
DISSIPATING BEFORE IT GETS ANY FARTHER EAST.
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIDGING AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A MOISTURE PLUME TRIGGERING STORMS ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. NIGHTLY POTENTIAL FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION EASTWARD APPEARS LIKELY, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE RIDGE SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EASTWARD FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO RUN STRAIGHT UP
THROUGH OUR AREA, DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD
THAT THAT MOISTURE PLUME DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI, BUT A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS TRIGGERS MORE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WE SEE A BAROCLINIC WEATHER PATTERN SET UP WITH STRONG
RIDGING BUILDING UP TO OUR NORTH, AND A SERIES OF TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WHILE INCREASED WARM-AIR ADVECTION FROM ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90.
EXTREME HEAT APPEARS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTING TO CONCERNING HEAT INDICES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY
FOG MAY BRING BRIEF, SPOTTY PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 01/14Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD, BEGINNING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
VEERING TO EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. A DECAYING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AFTER 02/06Z, WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT KOFK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...WOOD
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