971
FXUS63 KOAX 021641
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1141 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DECAYING MCS WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
- A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES KEEPING WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER
IN PLACE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SEGMENTS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. PRIMARY HAZARDS HAVE BEEN STRONG WINDS, HAIL. THIS STEMS
FROM A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE WESTERN FLANK OF A RIDGE THAT IS
BUILDING UP OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. OUT TO THE WEST, WE
HAVE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AMPLIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WYOMING, COLORADO, AND THE
DAKOTAS.
THE SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WILL PUSH IT EAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING AS IT CONTINUES EAST. AS IT
CLEARS OUT, CAMS SHOW IT LEAVING A REMNANT MCV IN PLACE CENTERED
AROUND BOONE COUNTY, NE. THIS MCV WILL TRIGGER NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND CLEARING
CLOUD COVER DESTABILIZES THE ENVIRONMENT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH WE DESTABILIZE TOMORROW WITH REMNANT
CLOUD COVER STRUGGLING TO CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA THAT CLEAR EARLIER MAY SEE UP TO 1500J/KG OF SBCAPE,
WHILE OTHER AREAS SEE ONLY 500J/KG OR LESS. IF STORMS CAN
TRIGGER IN AREAS WITH GREATER DESTABILIZATION, WE COULD SEE A
A STRONGER STORM OR TWO DEVELOP, BUT SHEAR IS REALLY WEAK. ANY
STRONGER STORMS SHOULDN'T LAST TOO LONG, BUT COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL AS IT COLLAPSES ON ITSELF. THESE
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET AS THEY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.
LATE TUESDAY WE SEE A SHORTWAVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGE
UP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR WEST, MERGING INTO THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MONTANA. THIS AMPLIFIES THE JET STREAK
OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, KEEPING EVENING-
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONFINED MORE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. EVEN SO WE COULD STILL SEE A COMPLEX RIDE OFF THIS
BOUNDARY EASTWARD, MOVING INTO OUR AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY AS IT
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.
GOING INTO MIDWEEK WE SEE THAT TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA PUSH
UP INTO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN STARTING TO NUDGE THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FURTHER EAST. THIS TREND WILL SHIFT THE
MOISTURE PLUME EAST, BRINGING AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT EAST INTO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS WE'LL SEE 1500-2000J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A
MARGINAL AMOUNT OF SFC-500MB BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 35KT, JUST
ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. MORE
LIKELY, WE SEE STORMS SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY ARE SEEING TO OUR
WEST TODAY, SEVERAL DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOP
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. THESE
STORMS THEN MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE SEE THE RIDGE GET SHOVED FARTHER AND
FARTHER EAST, AND A STREAM OF SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO
STREAM WARM, MOIST AIR OUT OF THE GULF UP INTO OUR AREA.
THURSDAY WE SEE THE RIBBON OF STORMS LIGHT BACK UP ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AGAIN WITH ONLY A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS. FRIDAY, WE SEE A SHORTWAVE PERHAPS INCREASE THE AMOUNT
OF SHEAR WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THIS IS POSSIBLY
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVER THE WEEKEND WE SEE A STRONG AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA, SITUATED NORTH OF A
TROUGH OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS CONTINUING TO STREAM WARM, MOIST
AIR INTO OUR REGION. DAILY STORM CHANCES CONTINUE, GIVING US
MUCH NEEDED SEASONAL RAINFALL, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH HEAT INDICES UP
AROUND 90.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS OVER THAT
TIME. AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPED OVER KOMA THIS MORNING. THAT
CHANCE CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE TAF SITES,
BUT IS NOT INCLUDED IN OFFICIAL TAFS AS ODDS ARE AT ABOUT 20%
OR LESS AND COULD HAPPEN AT ANY TIME BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 8PM.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE HEAVILY FAVORED. IF ANY SHOWER/STORM DOES
DEVELOP, IT MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE, BUT IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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