283
FXUS63 KOAX 022319
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TUESDAY BRINGS A BREAK IN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES KEEPING WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER
IN PLACE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT ARE STILL CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS WITH NUMBERS PEAKING IN THE LOWER 80S. A PASSING
VORTICITY MAXIMA HAS HELPED INDUCE A FEW SUB-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF YORK, NE AND BEATRICE, NE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SHEAR VALUES BELOW 20 KNOTS, THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNORGANIZED AND ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM MISSOURI TO THE UP OF MICHIGAN WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROF ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY.
TONIGHT.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE FORECAST AREA'S WESTERN
EDGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVE BEFORE FADING WITH THE
SETTING OF THE SUN. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS, WE MAY SEE THE REMNANTS OF A DECAYING MCS APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY UNTIL SUNRISE
WHEN A 20-30% POP SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THE AREA'S WESTERN TIER
OF COUNTIES. SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNLIKELY.
WEDNESDAY
WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL LEAVE
THE DAY FEELING SUMMERY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE SOUTHERN MOISTURE PLUME TO PUSH THROUGH OUR
AREA. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD LEAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING BOUNDARY. AGAIN, SHEAR WILL BE LACKING, SO
STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE TOO. BUT, LIKELY POPS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE BY THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THE WEEK'S BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAIT FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. CSU AND MACHINE LEARNING FORECASTS SUGGEST FRIDAY
BRINGS THE WEEK'S BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.
THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY'S FORECAST HAS DRIED CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER
FORECASTS AS RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THIS AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER-LOW CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST H5 FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORM MAY CLIP KOFK WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR, BUT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING SOON. A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP BY 11Z CLIPPING KOFK AND KLNK, BUT
PROBABILITIES ONLY REMAIN AT 20% OR LESS SO MORE THAN LIKELY
WILL SEE A DRY FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT MORE
REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR
OCCURRENCE AT TERMINALS REMAINS LESS THAN 20% AT THIS TIME SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF. EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS
LOWER TO AROUND 5,000-9,000 FT AT TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 14Z, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KTS EXPECTED AT KOFK AND KLNK. THE GUSTINESS SUBSIDES BY THE
END OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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