177
FXUS63 KOAX 050431
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, A FEW TORNADOES, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- SATURDAY HIGHS WILL REACH THE 90S WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 90S. A FEW LOW 100S
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
- A PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE OMAHA CWA EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONVECTION EXITING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BIG HORNS OF WYOMING
WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE, AND A BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE, CUTTING ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FEW MODELS SHOW THESE
STORMS POTENTIALLY REACHING OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT A RETURN OF THE HEAT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S. HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2500+ J/KG, MUCAPE VALUES
ALSO AROUND 2500+ J/KG AND LAPSE RATES DECENT. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL
BE AROUND 25-35KTS WITH SRH VALUES OF 150+ M^2/S^2, POSSIBLY CLOSER
TO 250+ M^2/S^2 NEAR THE FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A FEW OF
WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
OVER WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND HOW STRONG THEY COULD BECOME.
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WHILE
OTHERS SUCH AS THE HRRR ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC IN GETTING STORMS
TO DEVELOP. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO GET GOING WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS HIGH AS THURSDAY, THE SETUP DOES STILL GIVE US THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP,
GIVING US A CONCERN FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
EXPECT A PATTERN SHIFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
TEXAS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING A COUPLE OF
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE OMAHA CWA.
SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
80S TO MID-90S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW TO MID-90S
IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS SEVERAL DAYS
WHERE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S. A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. NOT EVERY LOCATION CAN EXPECT TO SEE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY AND SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
KOFK: SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF AT THE TERMINAL AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL FLUXUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, RETURNING TO VFR BY 15Z. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE EAST BY 14Z.
KOMA: MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AND INTO TONIGHT. A MENTION OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
WAS MAINTAINED IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS THROUGH 02Z AS AN
ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS EXTENDING FROM TECUMSEH
TO KCBF CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KLNK: MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND
19Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP
UP SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST. AS A
RESULT, A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE OVERALL LINE OF SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 06Z
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5-10KTS AFTER 09Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page