430
FXUS63 KOAX 052245
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
545 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AN ISOLATED TORNADO, AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BEFORE A SLIGHT COOLDOWN
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
- A PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 90S WITH POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE HEAT CONCERNS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHILE SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THE BAND OF HEAVY
RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH (BY MAYBE A COUNTY) THAN EARLIER
RUNS, SAID EARLIER RUNS DID SHOW A WEST-TO-EAST AXIS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ROUGHLY THROUGH THE OMAHA METRO. WHILE THOSE AREAS DID
MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LAST NIGHT, THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5" AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NEAR 4 KM. EVEN WITHOUT THOSE SATURATED
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, RESULTING RAINFALL RATES IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WITHIN
CITIES AND TOWNS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED
NORTH AND WEST, WHERE EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
SAID HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION, BUT HAS
SLOWLY PUSHED A FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT BECOMES THE
FOCAL POINT FOR OUR WEATHER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME, A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS FROM THESE SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR POSSIBLE. SUBSIDENCE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM, RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS
RISE WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. WITH A CAP
IN PLACE, INSTABILITY BUILDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, LIKELY
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG BY EVENING. THIS INSTABILITY, COUPLED WITH
THE FRONT, AND INCREASING WESTERLIES WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR AN ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS THREAT IS EXPECTED. THIS THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN
TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERING AND LOW-LEVEL STABILITY
INCREASE. THE THREAT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A FLASH FLOODING
CONCERN. MANY AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
RECEIVED 2-4" OF RAINFALL ALREADY. AN ADDITION 1-2" APPEARS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THESE SAME AREAS WITH PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2-4" POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS EXPECTATION. OTHER AREAS, INCLUDING
BEATRICE, UP THROUGH OMAHA, AND INTO POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY MAY
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, BUT LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE LIMITED RAINFALL
YESTERDAY CASTS DOUBT ON WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MANY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY SNEAK INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, A PATTERN SHIFT TAKES HOLD. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE CHANGES SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, PERHAPS NEAR 100 FOR SOME. THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE HEAT
CONCERNS AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROUND THE RIDGE AND SHOULD
SUPPORT DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, IT MAY FEEL CLOSER TO JULY THEN
MID-JUNE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS DEVELOP. STORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY IN THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA AREAS. HAVE KEPT KOFK DRY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT THE STORMS TO BE SLOW TO MOVE
AWAY FROM LNK AND OMA ONCE THEY DEVELOP. THE 3-4 HOUR WINDOWS
CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT OF TSRA AT LNK AND OMA MAY NOT
BE LONG ENOUGH AS THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NEZ050>053-065>068-
089>093.
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-
091.
UPDATE...CA
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page