450
FXUS63 KOAX 060516
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AN
ISOLATED TORNADO, AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BEFORE A SLIGHT COOLDOWN
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
- A PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 90S WITH POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE HEAT CONCERNS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
GENERAL LACK OF THUNDERSTORM REPORTS SUGGEST STORMS SO FAR HAVE
MOSTLY UNDERPERFORMED. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES, STORM
INTERACTIONS HAVE BEEN DETRIMENTAL. EXPECT TO SEE FEWER SEVERE
WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS FLOOD CONCERNS CONTINUE TO
GROW.
SLOW STORM MOTIONS HAVE LEFT SOME AREAS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
2-5" SO FAR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LANCASTER AND SOUTHWESTERN
SEWARD COUNTY. THE COMPLEX AS A WHOLE IS MEANDERING EAST WITH A
SLIGHT NORTHERN COMPONENT TO ITS MOTION. AS A RESULT, FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR THE OMAHA METRO ARE INCREASING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX LASTING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNRISE.
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO RIVER VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN IOWA BY SUNRISE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION, BUT HAS
SLOWLY PUSHED A FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT BECOMES THE
FOCAL POINT FOR OUR WEATHER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME, A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS FROM THESE SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR POSSIBLE. SUBSIDENCE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM, RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS
RISE WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. WITH A CAP
IN PLACE, INSTABILITY BUILDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, LIKELY
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG BY EVENING. THIS INSTABILITY, COUPLED WITH
THE FRONT, AND INCREASING WESTERLIES WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR AN ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS THREAT IS EXPECTED. THIS THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN
TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERING AND LOW-LEVEL STABILITY
INCREASE. THE THREAT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A FLASH FLOODING
CONCERN. MANY AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
RECEIVED 2-4" OF RAINFALL ALREADY. AN ADDITION 1-2" APPEARS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THESE SAME AREAS WITH PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2-4" POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS EXPECTATION. OTHER AREAS, INCLUDING
BEATRICE, UP THROUGH OMAHA, AND INTO POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY MAY
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, BUT LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE LIMITED RAINFALL
YESTERDAY CASTS DOUBT ON WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MANY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY SNEAK INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, A PATTERN SHIFT TAKES HOLD. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE CHANGES SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, PERHAPS NEAR 100 FOR SOME. THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE HEAT
CONCERNS AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROUND THE RIDGE AND SHOULD
SUPPORT DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, IT MAY FEEL CLOSER TO JULY THEN
MID-JUNE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
EXPECT TO SEE THE THUNDERSTORM EXPANSION ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT,
MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT TEMPO
STORMS AT KLNK THROUGH 10Z WITH SOME GUIDANCE KEEPING THEM IN
THE VICINITY UNTIL AS LATE AS 13Z. I CHOSE TO KEEP KOMA'S TAF
DRY AS EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CITY, BUT
THERE IS A 25% CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE MORE ACTIVITY AT THE
AERODROME BEFORE 13Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEASTERN WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND
PICKING UP SPEED BY MID-DAY SATURDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ050>053-065>068-
078-088>093.
IA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-
091.
UPDATE...NICOLAISEN
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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