949
FXUS63 KOAX 062322
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
622 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM 5
PM TO 10 PM ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS,
AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE (20-30%).
- WARMER WEATHER BUILDS IN MONDAY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS TREND UPWARDS WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THAT
COULD THWART EXTREME HEAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A NOTABLE MCV SPINNING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WORKING WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO
CONTINUE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOFT CLOUD
DEBRIS NORTHWARD. ANOTHER SURFACE FEATURE AT PLAY LOCALLY IS A
DECAYING FRONT/CONVERGENT BOUNDARY LAID ROUGHLY NORTH OF
PLATTSMOUTH, POINTING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. WITH CLOUDS
DECREASING OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING, WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO WARM
UP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S, AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT -- ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG/SOUTH OF THAT BOUNDARY IN ADDITION TO THE MCV TO
THE SOUTH WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN FEW TIERS OF
IOWA COUNTIES. TAKING A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, VERY LITTLE SHEAR
IS IN PLACE FOR ANY STORM TO MAINTAIN A HEALTHY UPDRAFT FOR VERY
LONG, LEADING TO A SLOW-MOVING BUT SHORT-LIVED CHARACTER TO THEM. A
FEW DOWNPOURS, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE STORMS, WITH THE WINDOW FOR THEIR
OCCURRENCE BEING FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM. WEAKER OVERALL CONVERGENCE
WILL ALSO LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS AS WELL, WITH ANY LOCATION
HAVING A 25% CHANCE OF SEEING ONE. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT,
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV/SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SUNDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED B Y
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, TAKING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A
NOTCH OR TWO ON THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER 80S. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE LIFE TO THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL AMBIENT VORTICITY AND
CAPE GIVING THE AREA A SNEAKY CHANCE AT SEEING FUNNELS FORM
UNDERNEATH A FEW OF THE UPDRAFTS AND EVENTUAL STORMS THAT DO OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, LARGE-SCALE SEVERE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EARLY FORECAST AS THE MORE POTENT FLOW
REMAINS LOCKED AWAY NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY AND BEYOND:
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS MARRED BY UNSEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN TO START THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS THAT STARTED OUT IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND TREND QUICKLY
UPWARDS, INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES MONDAY BEFORE HIGHS PUSH
INTO THE 90S AREA-WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND "COOL" BACK DOWN INTO
THE 80S THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WHILE HEAT INDICES DON'T GET TO OUR
TRADITIONAL CRITERIA FOR HEAT ADVISORY, THE EARLY NATURE OF THIS
HEAT WAVE IN ADDITION TO OUR RECENT HUMIDITY INDICATES THAT THE
OVERALL HEAT RISK -- A WIDER VIEW ON HOW HEAT MAY STRESS PEOPLE
AND FACILITIES THAT RESPOND TO HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. AS OF NOW,
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHES THE HEAT RISK INTO THE MAJOR
CATEGORY, MAKING ANY MESSAGING RELATED TO STAYING COOL AND
HYDRATED A MUST. TAKING A LOOK AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMNANTS
OF THE MCV COMBINED WITH AN ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY, WITH INTERMITTENT
ACTIVITY REMAINING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEING LOBBED FROM THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE AREA BY TROUGHING TO THE
WEST. THE TIMING AND EXISTENCE OF THOSE RAIN CHANCES DO ADD A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK, AND WE'VE LAID OFF MESSAGING THINGS TOO STRONGLY RELATED
TO THAT HEAT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TONIGHT, RUNNING AT
5-15 MPH. EXPECT THEM TO BE A STEP QUICKER AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE TAF FORECAST IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT KOFK AND KLNK DRY FOR NOW
WITH PROBABILITY OF T-STORMS THERE UNDER 30%. HAVE T-STORMS
PREVAILING AT KOMA FROM 13Z TO 16Z SUNDAY. THAT CHANCE OF STORMS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT BY THEN, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. WILL LET FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES
TRY TO BETTER DEFINE THOSE STORMS.
HAVE ALSO CONSIDERED REDUCING VISIBILITY DUE TO THE THREAT OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEAR SUNRISE, BUT AS OF NOW, IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF LNK AND OMA. CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORECASTS IS LOW TODAY
AND LOW MOST OF THE TIME.
EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT ALL THREE SITES
WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT LNK FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO AT SUNRISE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
3-7" OR MORE FELL IN THE TURKEY/SWAN CREEK BASINS LATE YESTERDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ENDING UP IN THE BIG BLUE BASIN AS WELL. TURKEY CREEK HAS
REACTED STRONGLY NEAR DE WITT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO HIT MINOR
FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS EVENING, WHILE LOCAL REACHES OF THE BIG
BLUE WAIT UNTIL MONDAY/TUESDAY TO CREST IN ACTION TO FLOOD
STAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTS FOR THE BIG BLUE WILL
INCREASE AS WE GO FORWARD, WITH POTENTIAL FLOOD WARNING TO BE
ISSUED IF THE CURRENT FORECAST NEAR DORCHESTER HOLDS GOING
FORWARD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
HYDROLOGY...PETERSEN
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