263
FXUS63 KOAX 070343
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1043 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNDAY WON'T BE AS WARM AS SATURDAY AND MAY BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME NON-SUPERCELL FUNNEL CLOUDS.
- WARMER WEATHER BUILDS IN MONDAY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS TREND UPWARDS WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THAT
COULD THWART EXTREME HEAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
"CUT-OFF LOW, WEATHERMAN'S WOE." CONUS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MAKES IT EASY TO SPOT THE CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER TEXAS'S
PANHANDLE WITH IT'S EASTERN HALF DRAWING MOISTURE THROUGH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, AND UP INTO NEBRASKA. THE MID-
LATITUDE JET ARCS NORTH, RIDGING WELL INTO CANADA AND BRINGING
UNSEASONABLE HEAT TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS WERE RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL TODAY.
THIS CWA'S HIGHS WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN EARLY
JUNE NORMS.
WE HAD ONE FUNNEL REPORT FROM A CELL NEAR VILLISCA, IA THIS
EVENING. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY
UNENCUMBERED BY DEEP SHEAR LEFT STORMS CAPABLE OF STRETCHING ANY
VERTICAL LOW-LEVEL VORTICES. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT MAY DEVELOP
ON MONDAY. ANY FUNNELS THAT DO DEVELOP ON MONDAY SHOULD BE WEAK
AND SHORT-LIVED LIKE TODAY'S WAS.
AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION, CHANCES OF RAIN BEGIN TO
CLIMB AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW. POPS
CLIMB UNTIL PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM
ABOUT 80% IN WESTERN IOWA TO 10% AT NIOBRARA, NE. FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE MOSTLY LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA WHERE PWAT VALUES APPROACH 2" AND QPF IS OVER
0.4". SHOWERS, HOWEVER, SHOULD BE SCATTERED AND TRANSIENT,
MEANING THEY WON'T BE SPENDING TOO MUCH TIME IN ONE LOCATION.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOOD THREAT. IF A SHOWER INTERRUPTS YOUR
OUTDOOR PLANS, WAITING 30 MINS MIGHT SOLVE YOUR DILEMMA. MOST OF
THE DAY WILL BE SPENT UNDER THE CLOUD COVER BEFORE CLEARING
WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE HIGHS CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS (82F) OR PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.
MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY
WITH GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BRINGING A WEST COAST TROF
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS A BIT FASTER THAN THE PAST FEW RUNS,
WE HAVE PUSHED TEMPS A BIT HIGHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. TEMPS REBOUND ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY SINKING
SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HIGHS SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 90F AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES BUT STALLS AND KIND OF WASHES OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TUESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO
FAR WITH WIDESPREAD 90S FORECAST AND NEAR 100 EXPECTED ALONG THE
SD STATE LINE. BEING EARLY IN THE SEASON GENERALLY MAKES HEAT
IMPACTS A LITTLE WORSE AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, HEAT
INDICES WILL BE PEAKING OVER 100 ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL
LOCATIONS AND A FEW OTHERS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER SCORCHER, BUT FOR THOSE STUCK WORKING OUTDOORS, IT WILL
HAVE THE BENEFIT OF BEING BREEZY.
NEW PATTERN
AN UPPER TROF - CRASHING THROUGH SEATTLE ON MONDAY - DRIVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TWO DAYS LATER, BRINGING A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ATTENDANT CHANCE POPS (10 WEST - 70% EAST).
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED BY THE
SPC WITH A 15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN AN AREA THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO ABOUT BLAIR, NE AND DES
MOINES, IA. THERE WILL BE LOTS OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. STORM
MODES MAY BEGIN AS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES, BUT SHEAR
VECTORS ARE NEARLY ALIGNED WITH THE PROGGED FRONT, MEANING THEY
MAY COALESCE INTO CLUSTERS QUICKLY.
TEMPS, WHILE COOLER ON THURSDAY, WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN JUST
ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON MAXIMUMS IN THE 80S.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS FROM
THIS POINT, BUT KEEP REGULAR CHANCES FOR SUMMER SHOWERS AND
STORMS PARADING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS AS THE MID-LATTITUDE
JET'S PROXIMITY ASSURES REGULAR CHANCES AS PRECIP.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TONIGHT, RUNNING AT
5-15 MPH. EXPECT THEM TO BE A STEP QUICKER AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE TAF FORECAST IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT KOFK AND KLNK DRY FOR NOW
WITH PROBABILITY OF T-STORMS THERE UNDER 30%. HAVE T-STORMS
PREVAILING AT KOMA FROM 13Z TO 16Z SUNDAY. THAT CHANCE OF STORMS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT BY THEN, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. WILL LET FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES
TRY TO BETTER DEFINE THOSE STORMS.
HAVE ALSO CONSIDERED REDUCING VISIBILITY DUE TO THE THREAT OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEAR SUNRISE, BUT AS OF NOW, IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF LNK AND OMA. CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORECASTS IS LOW TODAY
AND LOW MOST OF THE TIME.
EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT ALL THREE SITES
WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT LNK FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO AT SUNRISE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
3-7" OR MORE FELL IN THE TURKEY/SWAN CREEK BASINS LATE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ENDING UP IN THE BIG BLUE BASIN AS WELL. TURKEY CREEK HAS
REACTED STRONGLY NEAR DE WITT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO HIT MINOR
FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY EVENING, WHILE LOCAL REACHES OF THE BIG
BLUE WAIT UNTIL MONDAY/TUESDAY TO CREST IN ACTION TO FLOOD
STAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTS FOR THE BIG BLUE WILL
INCREASE AS WE GO FORWARD, WITH POTENTIAL FLOOD WARNING TO BE
ISSUED IF THE CURRENT FORECAST NEAR DORCHESTER HOLDS GOING
FORWARD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
HYDROLOGY...PETERSEN
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