697
FXUS63 KOAX 071043
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
543 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNDAY WON'T BE AS WARM AS SATURDAY AND MAY BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME NON-SUPERCELL FUNNEL CLOUDS.
- WARMER WEATHER BUILDS IN MONDAY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS TREND UPWARDS WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THAT
COULD THWART EXTREME HEAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
"CUT-OFF LOW, WEATHERMAN'S WOE." CONUS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MAKES IT EASY TO SPOT THE CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER TEXAS'S
PANHANDLE WITH IT'S EASTERN HALF DRAWING MOISTURE THROUGH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, AND UP INTO NEBRASKA. THE MID-
LATITUDE JET ARCS NORTH, RIDGING WELL INTO CANADA AND BRINGING
UNSEASONABLE HEAT TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS WERE RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL TODAY.
THIS CWA'S HIGHS WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN EARLY
JUNE NORMS.
WE HAD ONE FUNNEL REPORT FROM A CELL NEAR VILLISCA, IA THIS
EVENING. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY
UNENCUMBERED BY DEEP SHEAR LEFT STORMS CAPABLE OF STRETCHING ANY
VERTICAL LOW-LEVEL VORTICES. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT MAY DEVELOP
ON MONDAY. ANY FUNNELS THAT DO DEVELOP ON MONDAY SHOULD BE WEAK
AND SHORT-LIVED LIKE TODAY'S WAS.
AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION, CHANCES OF RAIN BEGIN TO
CLIMB AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW. POPS
CLIMB UNTIL PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM
ABOUT 80% IN WESTERN IOWA TO 10% AT NIOBRARA, NE. FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE MOSTLY LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA WHERE PWAT VALUES APPROACH 2" AND QPF IS OVER
0.4". SHOWERS, HOWEVER, SHOULD BE SCATTERED AND TRANSIENT,
MEANING THEY WON'T BE SPENDING TOO MUCH TIME IN ONE LOCATION.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOOD THREAT. IF A SHOWER INTERRUPTS YOUR
OUTDOOR PLANS, WAITING 30 MINS MIGHT SOLVE YOUR DILEMMA. MOST OF
THE DAY WILL BE SPENT UNDER THE CLOUD COVER BEFORE CLEARING
WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE HIGHS CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS (82F) OR PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.
MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY
WITH GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BRINGING A WEST COAST TROF
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS A BIT FASTER THAN THE PAST FEW RUNS,
WE HAVE PUSHED TEMPS A BIT HIGHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. TEMPS REBOUND ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY SINKING
SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HIGHS SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 90F AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES BUT STALLS AND KIND OF WASHES OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TUESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO
FAR WITH WIDESPREAD 90S FORECAST AND NEAR 100 EXPECTED ALONG THE
SD STATE LINE. BEING EARLY IN THE SEASON GENERALLY MAKES HEAT
IMPACTS A LITTLE WORSE AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, HEAT
INDICES WILL BE PEAKING OVER 100 ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL
LOCATIONS AND A FEW OTHERS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER SCORCHER, BUT FOR THOSE STUCK WORKING OUTDOORS, IT WILL
HAVE THE BENEFIT OF BEING BREEZY.
NEW PATTERN
AN UPPER TROF - CRASHING THROUGH SEATTLE ON MONDAY - DRIVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TWO DAYS LATER, BRINGING A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ATTENDANT CHANCE POPS (10 WEST - 70% EAST).
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED BY THE
SPC WITH A 15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN AN AREA THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO ABOUT BLAIR, NE AND DES
MOINES, IA. THERE WILL BE LOTS OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. STORM
MODES MAY BEGIN AS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES, BUT SHEAR
VECTORS ARE NEARLY ALIGNED WITH THE PROGGED FRONT, MEANING THEY
MAY COALESCE INTO CLUSTERS QUICKLY.
TEMPS, WHILE COOLER ON THURSDAY, WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN JUST
ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON MAXIMUMS IN THE 80S.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS FROM
THIS POINT, BUT KEEP REGULAR CHANCES FOR SUMMER SHOWERS AND
STORMS PARADING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS AS THE MID-LATTITUDE
JET'S PROXIMITY ASSURES REGULAR CHANCES AS PRECIP.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE FROM 17-21Z AT KLNK AND 18-22Z AT
KOMA. IF PRECIPITATION MANAGES TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS KOFK,
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE FROM 19-23Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 00Z THIS EVENING AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 12 KTS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
3-7" OR MORE FELL IN THE TURKEY/SWAN CREEK BASINS LATE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ENDING UP IN THE BIG BLUE BASIN AS WELL. TURKEY CREEK HAS
REACTED STRONGLY NEAR DE WITT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO HIT MINOR
FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY EVENING, WHILE LOCAL REACHES OF THE BIG
BLUE WAIT UNTIL MONDAY/TUESDAY TO CREST IN ACTION TO FLOOD
STAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTS FOR THE BIG BLUE WILL
INCREASE AS WE GO FORWARD, WITH POTENTIAL FLOOD WARNING TO BE
ISSUED IF THE CURRENT FORECAST NEAR DORCHESTER HOLDS GOING
FORWARD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...KG
HYDROLOGY...PETERSEN
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