690
FXUS63 KOAX 072324
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING,
AND FUNNEL CLOUD OR TWO ALL POSSIBLE.
- WARMER WEATHER BUILDS IN MONDAY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS TREND UPWARDS WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THAT
COULD THWART EXTREME HEAT.
- HEAT COULD BE DISRUPTED BY STRONGER STORMS THAT WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS TEXTURED LANDSCAPE OF
CLOUDS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, SPURRED ON BY
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW AND IT'S ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS GENERAL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. ZOOMING OUT A BIT FURTHER, LONGWAVE
TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO EXIST UP AND DOWN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SOUNDING
PROFILES AND SPC OBJECTIVE FIELDS LOCALLY DEPICT A GENERALLY
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT, WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER CONVECTION PULSING UP
AND DOWN THEREIN WHILE THE POTENTIAL/DURATION OF ANY STORM IS
LIMITED BY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS
SOME INCREASED VALUES OF NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER DUE TO
THE AMBIENT VORTICITY, SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND OVERALL STRETCHING POTENTIAL OF THAT VORTICITY. NO
TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT WE DO ANTICIPATE REPORTS OF
FUNNELS UNDERNEATH SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING PULSE CONVECTION
OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE SPURIOUS
CONVECTION, LIGHTER RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN A MORE
WIDESPREAD NATURE BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE/SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY WARM SLIGHTLY TO THEIR PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S,
MAKING IT A LOW POINT FROM WHICH WE WILL JUMP FORWARD INTO A
HOTTER FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SKIES OVERNIGHT
WILL TREND CLEARER AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE LOW, WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS TRYING TO USHER IN AREAS OF FOG,
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE FORECAST HITS A BIT OF A TURNING POINT MONDAY, AS THE MID/UPPER
JET STREAK NEAR THE HIGH PLAINS ADVANCES FARTHER EAST -- NOT
NECESSARILY TO INDUCE WEATHER DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA, BUT MORESO TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE WEST THAT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. AS FOR MONDAY IN PARTICULAR, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FRONT THE HIGH PLAINS THE DAY PREVIOUS WILL PUSH INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
THE FRONT WILL BEND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, CONNECTING TO A
LOCAL SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NE/KS/CO BORDER. CAMS ARE GENERALLY ON
BOARD WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
THEY DO ALSO HINT AT STORMS TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 6 PM, BUT WITH SUFFICIENT, BUT LESS
INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THOSE STORMS SERVE AS THE
INITIAL SEVERE THREAT FOR THE EVENING, WITH AN EVENTUAL MCS
TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE/OVERNIGHT MONDAY THAT WOULD
BRING 50-60 MPH WINDS THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ASIDE FROM THE STORMS, HEAT WILL ALSO BE OF IMPORTANCE TO THE
FORECAST, WHERE AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO HIT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK, SEEING A POTENTIAL BUMP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S AND
NEAR 100 DEGREES IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE CONTINUATION OF
ANY HEAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL TO POTENTIAL STORM AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. WE'RE NOT EXPECTING
A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS, BUT A POORLY-TIMED MCS THAT POWERS
THROUGH THE AREA WOULD KILL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY,
LEAVING US A BIT CAUTIOUS WITH REGARDS TO ISSUING ANY HEAT
HEADLINES. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES CARRY AREAS OF "MAJOR" HEAT
RISK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BEFORE REDUCING TO "MODERATE/MINOR"
AGAIN THURSDAY ONWARD.
STORM CHANCES ALSO CONTINUE TO BE OF CONCERN WITH THE MID/UPPER
FEATURES NUDGING A BIT CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY, AND
THROUGH/TO THE EAST OF AREA WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION/TIMING WITH THESE STORM CHANCES REMAIN LOW, AS THE
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DEFINING WHAT AREAS ARE ALLOWED TO RECOVER, WHILE OUTFLOWS
REMAIN AND SERVE AS FOCAL POINTS FOR THE NEXT DAY'S CONVECTION.
WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MID/UPPER FLOW,
SEVERE STORMS ARE ON THE BOARD BOTH DAYS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARDS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS PUSH EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE
REMAINING MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENS. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW THOUGH THIS PERIOD, KEEPING LOW-END CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FORECAST, BUT MOST WILL BE THANKFUL FOR THE COOLDOWN
INCOMING BACK TO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA NOW INCLUDE THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS / -TSRA AS THEY'VE BEEN DECREASING IN
NUMBER OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS. THEY'RE LIMITED TO THE AREA'S
EASTERN HALF AND ARE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES. (ABOUT A
25% CHANCE OF IMPACT AT KOMA BEFORE 01Z). IT WOULD LIKELY JUST
FALL AS -RA.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND FOG
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE BLOCKED OUT THE BASIC TIMING
OF THE WORST OF THE RESTRICTIONS... WITH BETTER TIMING PLANNED
FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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