593
FXUS63 KOAX 090525
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1225 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DECAYING LINE OF STORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS ARE UNLIKELY, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE (5% CHANCE).
- HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-107 IN MANY
LOCATIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES,
INCLUDING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THERE WERE A COUPLE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS OF NOTE THIS
EVENING. THE FIRST WAS ACROSS EASTERN KS IN VICINITY OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH AND CONTINUE DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT AND ON THE NOSE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER, SOME 50 MPH GUSTS WERE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHEAST NE
AS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THESE STORMS
WERE MOVING THROUGH. MEANWHILE, A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
PUSHING ACROSS NORTHEAST CO AND WESTERN NE, WITH ASSOCIATED
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THOSE AREAS. A FEW PIECES OF
AFTERNOON GUIDANCE (I.E. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR) SUGGESTED
THOSE STORMS CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS NE AND ENTER THE FORECAST
AREA BY 4 AM, BRINGING STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND MAYBE A LITTLE
HAIL TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, MOST NEWER GUIDANCE THIS EVENING
TENDS TO TAPER IT OFF QUITE A BIT BEFORE IT GETS HERE, WITH VERY
LITTLE, IF ANY RAIN EVEN FALLING IN THE AREA. NOW, LOOKING AT
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE STORMS, SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
1500-2000+ J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH PLENTY OF STRONG DEEP
LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, 0-3 KM
SHEAR IS NOTABLY WEAK (10-15 KTS) AND WILL BE LINE PARALLEL, SO
TEND TO THINK IT WILL GUST OUT PRIOR TO ARRIVING WITH MAYBE JUST
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS IN OUR AREA (30 MPH OR SO). FURTHERMORE, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE CHOKED OFF BY THE STORMS TO
OUR SOUTH, GIVING US THAT MUCH LESS FORCING. SO IN THE END,
THINK IT MAY HOLD TOGETHER A LITTLE LONGER THAN SOME GUIDANCE
SAYS GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IN PLACE, BUT THINKING IT WILL BE PRETTY OUTFLOW DOMINANT BY THE
TIME IT REACHES US AND SEVERE WINDS WILL BE UNLIKELY BY THEN.
WE'LL SAY A 5% CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR US.
FOR TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY AND
SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY QUIET, BUT HOT AND HUMID WEATHER. THE ONE
THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THE HEAT IS IF THERE'S ANY
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ANY OVERNIGHT/MORNING STORMS THAT KEEP
US A LITTLE COOLER. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL
YIELD HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 IN MANY LOCATIONS AND A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE HOT,
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER, MOST SOLUTIONS KEEP US CAPPED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH,
MOSTLY TO OUR WEST, AND A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CLIPS
NORTHEAST NE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE THAT DO
SUGGEST SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR AREA (E.G.
09.00Z RRFS A). IF THIS OCCURS, SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM, BUT MOST OF THOSE 70S DEWPOINTS SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST, LEAVING US WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO RIGHT AROUND 100 FOR A
FEW SPOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH AND COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE
TROUGH THEN FLATTENS OUT, LEAVING US UNDER ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP US DRY ON FRIDAY, BUT
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL START
SLIDING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE A LARGER SCALE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME
COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A FEW STRONG GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS SOUTH OF KLNK WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE OUT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
CURRENTLY TRYING TO MAKE IT'S WAY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WHILE THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE THAT THESE COULD MAKE IT TO THE
TAF SITES, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE STORMS FALLING APART
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015-017-018-031>034-042>045-
050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG
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