540
FXUS63 KOAX 102348
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
648 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20 TO 40% CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM BURCHARD TO RED OAK, IA. THESE STORMS MAY RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- BETTER CHANCES (60-80%) FOR STORMS ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THESE WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, A TORNADO OR TWO, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY (40-60% CHANCE).
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
17Z HAND ANALYSIS REVEALS A PRIMARY SFC LOW NEAR MANITOBA WITH A SFC
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. A SECONDARY SFC LOW IS ALSO SEEN NEAR THE ROCKIES WITH THE
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE FEATURE.
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH MLCAPE OF 2,000-3,000 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING JUST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS
SHOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELLS AS HINTED BY CAMS
WITH SOME LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
BEFORE GROWING UPSCALE INTO A LINE AND QUICKLY EXITING THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME, POPS REMAIN AT 20 TO 40% FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM PAWNEE TO MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER WARM
DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
OVER COLORADO TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. NEAR AND
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE, EXPECT AN H8 LLJ TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE H5 SHORTWAVE ALSO TRACKS
INTO THE AREA. THE STRONG H7-H8 LOW LEVEL FORCING AND H7-H5 FORCING
FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD HELP GENERATE AN ARC OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCAPE OF 2,000-3,000 J/KG WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 50 TO 70 KTS SHOULD HELP FUEL AND MAINTAIN SEVERE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH ALL HAZARDS ON THE TABLE. VERY STEEP H7-H5
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 DEG C/KM ALONG WITH ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS
WILL LEAD TO VERY LARGE HAIL. IN REGARDS TO TORNADO POTENTIAL, THIS
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON IF WE CAN BECOME SFC BASED. FORECAST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE, IF ANY, CIN PRESENT AT TIMES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN HODOGRAPHS. SRH IN
BOTH THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM LAYERS IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADO
POTENTIAL.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, GIVEN WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS OF AROUND 4,000 METERS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
PWATS OF 2 INCHES. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THESE VALUES WELL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER THE SPC. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE JET POINTED INTO THE AREA, SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
REDEVELOPMENT OF CELLS WITH TRAINING STORMS LIKELY AS SEEN PER SOME
CAM GUIDANCE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOOD/HYDRO
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AMONGST
GUIDANCE ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL LIE, HAVE HELD OFF FOR
THIS FORECAST UPDATE. POPS INCREASE AFTER 06Z TO 30 TO 50%
ALONG INTERSTATE 80, INCREASING TO 60 TO 80% BY 09Z FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PLATTE TO MONONA COUNTIES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY (30-
60% CHANCE) BEFORE QUICKLY PUSHING EASTWARD AND EXITING THE AREA
AFTER 12 PM. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY ARE NOTICEABLY
COOLER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS IN PLACE
FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A PAIR OF INCOMING FEATURES, ONE BEING A
COLD FRONT IMPINGING UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER
BEING A SURFACE LOW DRAGGING A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL WORK TOGETHER TO PROVIDE LIFT AND
A FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THEM FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY WILL BE HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL
THESE FEATURES PUSH THE STORM RISK, AS THE TREND IN THE LAST 4+
MODEL RUNS HAS SHIFTED IT FARTHER AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER
KANSAS AND MISSOURI. IF THAT SHIFT HOLDS, WE DO STILL HAVE RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WHEN THE FORCING IS LOCALLY-
ALIGNED, BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LIMITED.
SUNDAY HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, WE'LL SEE THE BOADER-SCALE TROUGH
THAT HAD BEEN RELEGATED TO THE NORTH SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA,
BRINGING IN QUITE THE CHANGE IN HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S SATURDAY WILL SINK INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES ARRIVING WITH THE BACK END PVA OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MONDAY. FROM THERE, WE TREND QUIETER PRECIPITATION-WISE
AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AND HIGHS INCREASE BACK INTO 80S
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FORWARD, WE'LL BE ON THE EDGE
OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
WITH MINOR RIDGING TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM KLNK TO KAIO. THIS
BOUNDARY IS GOING TO STALL SOUTH THEN SURGE BACK NORTH
OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO LIKELY SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AROUND 08-12Z. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A 70% CHANCE SOMEONE GETS HIGH WITH 65 MPH
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAFFLING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THESE STORMS, SO HAVEN'T INDICATED THE STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL JUST YET IN THE TAFS, BUT HAVE TIMING OF STORMS
INCLUDED, HITTING KLNK AROUND 08-10Z, AND KOMA AND 09-11Z.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING EARLIER WITH TIME OF ARRIVAL, THOUGH,
SO WILL UPDATE TIMING IF NEEDED. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE STORMS NEAR KOMA, HOLDING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING UNTIL CLOUDS BREAK UP AROUND 17Z. WINDS WILL BE
RAMPING UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 15-17Z,
GUSTING 30-35 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TERMINALS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO/PETERSEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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