821
FXUS63 KOAX 110545
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1245 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT (60-80% CHANCE),
MOVING THROUGH AROUND 3 TO 7 AM. THREATS INCLUDE VERY LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, A TORNADO OR TWO, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY (40-60% CHANCE) WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
WE HAVE TWO BOUNDARIES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
ONE IS JUST CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA UP THROUGH PAGE
COUNTY, IA BRINGING STORMS INTO RICHARDSON COUNTY. THE SECOND IS
MORE OF A TRUER COLD FRONT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH OF IT. THIS FRONT STRETCHES FROM
BEATRICE NORTHEAST TO AROUND RED OAK, IA. WE HAD A FEW STORMS
POP UP ALONG THAT SECOND BOUNDARY EARLIER, BUT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING SHUTTING OFF, WE'VE EVEN LOST THE CLOUDS THAT WERE ALONG
THAT BOUNDARY EARLIER.
ATTENTION TURNS TO STORMS OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
GUIDANCE HAS A DECENTLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO
NEBRASKA EARLY THURSDAY, PROVIDING UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT
FOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET, AND FORCING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT STARTING AROUND 1-2AM OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS THE
LLJ STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT, WE'LL SEE THE STRONGER SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY START TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 40-55KTS OF 1-3KM BULK SHEAR ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL LEAD TO THE ORGANIZATION OF A STRONG MCS
THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA. WHILE
CAMS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ON THE EXACT PATH OF THIS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX, IT GENERALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT SOMEWHERE AROUND I-80,
EITHER AIMING DIRECTLY TOWARDS LINCOLN OR OMAHA CONTINUING EAST
INTO IOWA.
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY START AS A CLUSTER OF STRONG INDIVIDUAL
CELLS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA, STARTING TO MERGE TOGETHER AS THEY
ENTER BUTLER, SEWARD, AND SALINE COUNTIES. THESE INITIAL STORM
CLUSTERS WILL HAVE A HIGH RISK OF LARGE HAIL, UP TO 2.5 INCHES.
AS THEY CONTINUE EAST, WE'LL SEE COLD-POOL DEVELOPMENT AS THE
STORM CLUSTERS START TO ORGANIZE THEMSELVES IN THE HIGH-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. IT WILL START WITH A COUPLE STRONG DOWNBURSTS,
WHICH THEN WILL LEAD TO THE TRANSITION INTO MORE OF MORE OF A
WIND-DRIVEN MCS WITH GUST POTENTIAL UP LIKELY UP TO 70-80 MPH.
COULDN'T RULE OUT GUSTS UP TO 100 MPH. THE NEXT UNCERTAINTY LIES
IN WHERE EXACTLY THIS TRANSITION OCCURS AND JUST HOW STRONG THE
WINDS WILL GET. I EXPECT THE TRANSITION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
SOMEWHERE AROUND LANCASTER+SAUNDERS COUNTIES EAST INTO OMAHA,
WITH A WIND-DRIVEN HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE TRANSITION. AREAS
EAST OF THE TRANSITION WILL SEE MORE OF JUST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY AROUND
7AM, WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD KEEPING LIGHT STRATIFORM SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER INTO MID-MORNING. ONCE
SHOWERS CLEAR, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT IS GOING TO BE MUCH COOLER.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MIX DOWN, LEADING TO GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE
ADVECTING IN COOLER, DRIER AIR WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY
PLEASANT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
GOING INTO FRIDAY WE SEE ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS
AT 250MB, WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AT
500MB. ON FRIDAY WE SEE THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK-SIDE OF THIS RIDGE COINCIDING WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING
AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE'LL SEE MOISTURE
ARRIVE WITH THE NOCTURNAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE LLJ INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS, AND POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH NOCTURNAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND THE LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHEREVER THIS SETS UP, EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND RIDE UP ALONG THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY, AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTING
THIS POTENTIAL SINCE DAY 5, WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THIS POTENTIAL, SO HIGHLIGHT SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING AS A
PERIOD WE SHOULD WATCH FOR MORE SEVERE STORMS.
BEYOND SATURDAY, COOLER WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WE SEE THE RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS SHORTWAVES RIDE DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED
WITH THESE SHOWERS LIKELY NOT LEADING TO ANY SIGNIFICANT,
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES TREND BACK UP TOWARD WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
OUT WEST STARTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD, LEADING TO THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK INTO OUR REGION. I
WOULDN'T EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEYOND
SATURDAY UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OR LATER IN THE WEEK NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KOFK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE DETERIORATING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
INTO THE REGION. AT LEAST ONE BUT POSSIBLY TWO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST ROUND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED. ALSO
EXPECT A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE FIRST WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY WITH THE SECOND POTENTIAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. SHOULD THIS SECONDARY LINE DEVELOP, IT
WOULD MOVE IN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS MENTION FROM PREVAILING
CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME BEING. BY 15Z, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z AS
CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION.
KOMA: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING INTO THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL, ALTHOUGH TIMING
HAS JUMPED AROUND A BIT. RIGHT NOW, WE'RE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL
ARRIVAL OF STORMS AROUND 09Z-10Z, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THE HAIL IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN AS MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN BRINGING A
CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE TERMINAL WHICH WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF
A HAIL AND WIND THREAT, AND A BOWING LINE OF STORMS WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MORE OF A WIND THREAT. TO CAPTURE THE POTENTIAL WIND
THREAT, A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED, BUT WIND GUSTS MAY NEED TO BE
AMENDED A BIT HIGHER DEPENDING ON HOW THESE STORMS BEHAVE AND
WHAT MODE THEY TAKE ON. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL LULL IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE TERMINAL FROM 11Z-13Z. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A POSSIBLE SECONDARY WAVE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH AFTER
13Z. THE BULK OF THE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE TERMINAL, CLOSER TO KBTA; HOWEVER, THE
HRRR BRINGS A LINE OF STORMS THROUGH, CLEARING THE TERMINAL BY
16Z. THIS SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS IS STILL IFFY WHERE OR IF IT
WILL DEVELOP, SO IT HAS BEEN OMITTED FROM PREVAILING CONDITIONS
FOR THE TIME BEING. MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z AS
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST, OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z.
KLNK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT THE TERMINAL
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING AROUND 09Z-10Z, WITH STORMS
CLEARING OUT BY 12Z. WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS, EXPECT THE
POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN STORM MODE AS THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE
LATEST MODELS HAVE A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER OR IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WHICH WOULD MEAN A POTENTIAL WIND
AND HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER, A SLIGHTLY FURTHER WESTWARD
DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN STORMS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE LINEAR
IN NATURE, RESULTING IN MORE OF A WIND THREAT. A TEMPO GROUP
WAS ADDED TO TRY AND ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED WINDS AND
DIRECTION AS STORMS ROLL THROUGH. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A
POTENTIAL SECOND WAVE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL AROUND 14Z-15Z. WE ARE A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN IN
THIS DEVELOPMENT AND OVERALL POTENTIAL, SO IT WAS OMITTED FROM
PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME BEING. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17Z AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...ANW
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