150
FXUS63 KOAX 111744
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1244 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT (60-80% CHANCE),
MOVING THROUGH AROUND 3 TO 7 AM. THREATS INCLUDE VERY LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, A TORNADO OR TWO, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY (40-60% CHANCE) WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
WE HAVE TWO BOUNDARIES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
ONE IS JUST CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA UP THROUGH PAGE
COUNTY, IA BRINGING STORMS INTO RICHARDSON COUNTY. THE SECOND IS
MORE OF A TRUER COLD FRONT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH OF IT. THIS FRONT STRETCHES FROM
BEATRICE NORTHEAST TO AROUND RED OAK, IA. WE HAD A FEW STORMS
POP UP ALONG THAT SECOND BOUNDARY EARLIER, BUT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING SHUTTING OFF, WE'VE EVEN LOST THE CLOUDS THAT WERE ALONG
THAT BOUNDARY EARLIER.
ATTENTION TURNS TO STORMS OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
GUIDANCE HAS A DECENTLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO
NEBRASKA EARLY THURSDAY, PROVIDING UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT
FOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET, AND FORCING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT STARTING AROUND 1-2AM OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS THE
LLJ STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT, WE'LL SEE THE STRONGER SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY START TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 40-55KTS OF 1-3KM BULK SHEAR ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL LEAD TO THE ORGANIZATION OF A STRONG MCS
THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA. WHILE
CAMS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ON THE EXACT PATH OF THIS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX, IT GENERALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT SOMEWHERE AROUND I-80,
EITHER AIMING DIRECTLY TOWARDS LINCOLN OR OMAHA CONTINUING EAST
INTO IOWA.
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY START AS A CLUSTER OF STRONG INDIVIDUAL
CELLS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA, STARTING TO MERGE TOGETHER AS THEY
ENTER BUTLER, SEWARD, AND SALINE COUNTIES. THESE INITIAL STORM
CLUSTERS WILL HAVE A HIGH RISK OF LARGE HAIL, UP TO 2.5 INCHES.
AS THEY CONTINUE EAST, WE'LL SEE COLD-POOL DEVELOPMENT AS THE
STORM CLUSTERS START TO ORGANIZE THEMSELVES IN THE HIGH-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. IT WILL START WITH A COUPLE STRONG DOWNBURSTS,
WHICH THEN WILL LEAD TO THE TRANSITION INTO MORE OF MORE OF A
WIND-DRIVEN MCS WITH GUST POTENTIAL UP LIKELY UP TO 70-80 MPH.
COULDN'T RULE OUT GUSTS UP TO 100 MPH. THE NEXT UNCERTAINTY LIES
IN WHERE EXACTLY THIS TRANSITION OCCURS AND JUST HOW STRONG THE
WINDS WILL GET. I EXPECT THE TRANSITION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
SOMEWHERE AROUND LANCASTER+SAUNDERS COUNTIES EAST INTO OMAHA,
WITH A WIND-DRIVEN HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE TRANSITION. AREAS
EAST OF THE TRANSITION WILL SEE MORE OF JUST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY AROUND
7AM, WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD KEEPING LIGHT STRATIFORM SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER INTO MID-MORNING. ONCE
SHOWERS CLEAR, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT IS GOING TO BE MUCH COOLER.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MIX DOWN, LEADING TO GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE
ADVECTING IN COOLER, DRIER AIR WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY
PLEASANT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
GOING INTO FRIDAY WE SEE ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS
AT 250MB, WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AT
500MB. ON FRIDAY WE SEE THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK-SIDE OF THIS RIDGE COINCIDING WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING
AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE'LL SEE MOISTURE
ARRIVE WITH THE NOCTURNAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE LLJ INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS, AND POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH NOCTURNAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND THE LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHEREVER THIS SETS UP, EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND RIDE UP ALONG THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY, AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTING
THIS POTENTIAL SINCE DAY 5, WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THIS POTENTIAL, SO HIGHLIGHT SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING AS A
PERIOD WE SHOULD WATCH FOR MORE SEVERE STORMS.
BEYOND SATURDAY, COOLER WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WE SEE THE RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS SHORTWAVES RIDE DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED
WITH THESE SHOWERS LIKELY NOT LEADING TO ANY SIGNIFICANT,
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES TREND BACK UP TOWARD WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
OUT WEST STARTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD, LEADING TO THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK INTO OUR REGION. I
WOULDN'T EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEYOND
SATURDAY UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OR LATER IN THE WEEK NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA. THOSE GUSTS ARE SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM 00-02Z THIS EVENING. BY 06Z, WINDS WILL
SWING SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE REMAINING LIGHT, WITH DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE MORNING
HOURS AT BELOW 10 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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