877
FXUS63 KOAX 112251
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
551 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY (40-60% CHANCE) WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY DURING THE FROM 3 TO
8 AM.
- COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
QUIETER CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED IN THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
SUBSTANTIAL MORNING STORM ACTIVITY, WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 70S ALONGSIDE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH. ZOOMING OUT A BIT TO THE LARGER PATTERN,
MID/UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, WARDING OFF
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE DAY AND INTO TOMORROW FOR OUR LOCAL
AREA. WE'LL ENJOY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW, WITH WINDS
SWITCHING BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THAT WILL HELP US REACH
BACK INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THOSE TEMPERATURES
WILL FEEL A LOT BETTER THAN THEY HAVE LATELY, WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 25- 40% AS OPPOSED TO THE 60% OR
HIGHER VALUES WE'VE SEEN WITH THE HOTTER DAYS EARLIER THIS WEEK.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND:
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST NOW SHIFTS TO SATURDAY, WHERE THE
MID/UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO TRANSITION OUT OF TROUGHING AND INTO
MORE ZONAL FLOW -- SPURRED ON BY THE CONVERGENCE OF A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THOSE TWO FEATURES ARE SET TO
BRING BACK RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA, WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR BEING PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE FIRST AND
MOST TROUBLESOME TO NAIL DOWN FOR THE FORECAST IS COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT WHILE IT FLATTENS OUT THE
UPPER PATTERN. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE KEY TO THE TIMING
AND OVERALL CEILING FOR THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY, WITH RECENT
TRENDS CONTINUING TO SHOW A QUICK ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, WHICH IS NOW
BEING RESOLVED IN 12Z CAM GUIDANCE AS A SWATH OF ELEVATED STORMS
MATERIALIZING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND 3 AM THAT
PROGRESSES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH 8 AM. WORKING ALONG WITH
THAT IMPINGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST, A SHORTWAVE AND LEE
CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ORGANIZE A HIGHLY-
SHEARED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, WITH THE NOSING
LLJ TO ITS EAST SERVICE AS THE INITIATING MECHANISM. THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THESE STORMS MAKE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD, WITH SPORADIC
DAMAGING WIND BEING THE SECONDARY. IF THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS, WE'LL HAVE MORE TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
INTO THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, AT WHICH TIME ADDITIONAL HAZARDS
WOULD BE IN PLAY. FOR NOW, THE LOWER CEILING HAIL, FLOOD, AND
WIND SCENARIO SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY FROM 3-8 AM BARRING SEISMIC
SHIFTS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK TRENDS COOLER WITH NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER
FLOW USHERING IN CANADIAN AIR WHILE LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WE'LL HAVE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES AT RAINFALL AS SHORTWAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE
FLOW, WITH HOT TEMPERATURES BEING NOT TOO FAR OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. IF THERE'S A BETTER TIME FOR RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN,
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WOULD BE THE NEXT BET FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIP
AS A COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY
LATER TONIGHT, THEN ON TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERLY FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO START TO GUST UP TO 20KT AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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