449
FXUS63 KOAX 120508
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1208 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY SATURDAY (60-80% CHANCE)
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM 3 TO 8 AM.
- COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
VERY PLEASANT THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WELL, WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE WAVE THAT LEAD TO DAMAGING STORMS ACROSS
OUR AREA THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY WREAKING HAVOC OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING.
WE SEE WEAK RIDGING PASS ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR. WE LOSE THE COOLING EFFECT OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS,
THOUGH, WITH A SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S,
THOUGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW. FRIDAY NIGHT WE'LL SEE THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE START TO BRING MOISTURE BACK UP INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE GULF. WITH THE NOCTURNAL AMPLIFICATION OF
THE LLJ, WE'LL SEE THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW AT 250-MB OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT STORMS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD MORE OF AN EARLY-MORNING
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WHICH WOULD BE ELEVATED
LENDING TO A GREATER HAIL, WIND, AND FLOODING THREAT. IF TIMING
SLOWS DOWN, WE'D SEE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
STORMS WHICH MEANS TORNADOES. RIGHT NOW THE GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS IS OVER EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
ONCE STORMS CLEAR ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT, A COOLER
CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLES BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH MILD, DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND CEDES TO A STRONG TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF
ALBERTA, DEEPENING ACROSS THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TO THE WEST, WE SEE RIDGING BUILD UP OVER
THE PACNW, EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK
UPWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
DEEPENS TUESDAY NIGHT, WE SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
NOCTURNAL LLJ PUSHING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
THIS WILL ADVECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA
BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY IN HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN RESPONDS BEHIND THIS MID-WEEK SYSTEM, MEANING
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE TRENDS OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CA
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