990
FXUS63 KOAX 121723
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1223 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY MORNING WITH A 30-40%
CHANCE FROM 3 TO 10 AM. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA, WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
VERY PLEASANT THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WELL, WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE WAVE THAT LEAD TO DAMAGING STORMS ACROSS
OUR AREA THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY WREAKING HAVOC OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING.
WE SEE WEAK RIDGING PASS ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR. WE LOSE THE COOLING EFFECT OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS,
THOUGH, WITH A SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S,
THOUGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW. FRIDAY NIGHT WE'LL SEE THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE START TO BRING MOISTURE BACK UP INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE GULF. WITH THE NOCTURNAL AMPLIFICATION OF
THE LLJ, WE'LL SEE THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW AT 250-MB OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT STORMS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD MORE OF AN EARLY-MORNING
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WHICH WOULD BE ELEVATED
LENDING TO A GREATER HAIL, WIND, AND FLOODING THREAT. IF TIMING
SLOWS DOWN, WE'D SEE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
STORMS WHICH MEANS TORNADOES. RIGHT NOW THE GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS IS OVER EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
ONCE STORMS CLEAR ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT, A COOLER
CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLES BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH MILD, DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND CEDES TO A STRONG TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF
ALBERTA, DEEPENING ACROSS THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TO THE WEST, WE SEE RIDGING BUILD UP OVER
THE PACNW, EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK
UPWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
DEEPENS TUESDAY NIGHT, WE SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
NOCTURNAL LLJ PUSHING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
THIS WILL ADVECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA
BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY IN HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN RESPONDS BEHIND THIS MID-WEEK SYSTEM, MEANING
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE TRENDS OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD INITIALLY BEFORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE HOLD. OVERNIGHT, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WON'T
BE TOO FAR OFF THE NORTHWEST, WHILE GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS CONTINUE
THAT GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE (45%) FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO OCCUR DURING A
2 HOUR WINDOW AT KOFK AROUND 10-12Z. FROM THERE, A WIND SHIFT
WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL ALSO
BRING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (30-40%) TO KOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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