484
FXUS63 KOAX 130428
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AFTER A QUIET FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
MOISTURE RETURN ON A LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON A SLOWLY SAGGING
COLD FRONT. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FORECAST
TO HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. A DAMAGING MICROBURST CAN'T
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALSO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY
WILL TRANSPIRE. SOME OF THIS EVENING'S GUIDANCE TENDS TO KEEP AT
LEAST SOME WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, ACCELERATING IT'S ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. OTHER GUIDANCE,
HAS A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SLOWING THE FRONT'S ADVANCE. IN EITHER EVENT, A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL SINK
TOWARDS OUR AREA BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ACT TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AT
THIS TIME, MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. WITH PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR, A
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS
POSSIBLE IF A DISCRETE CELL CAN REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW SUPPORTING POTENTIAL TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED, THAT IF EARLY DAY
CONVECTION LINGERS, THIS COULD INHIBIT LATER CONVECTION, SO WE
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS.
BY EVENING, THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PUSH SOUTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. A GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THE FRONT, USHERING COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER WEATHER SETTLES IN ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SEES TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB ONCE
AGAIN AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT POTENTIAL
WEATHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AREA. AFTER
WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM, FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE
AND SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THE FORECAST PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
LLWS AT OFK AND OMA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS JET
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE
HAS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF OFK BEFORE QUICKLY LIFTING
NORTH. OMA AND LNK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY IMPACTS CURRENTLY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST THEN NORTH ALONG
AND BEHIND THIS FRONT, EVENTUALLY BECOMING GUSTY. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CURRENTLY, THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OMA AND LNK. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS, IT IS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 21-00Z.
THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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