313
FXUS63 KOAX 130547
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1247 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AFTER A QUIET FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
MOISTURE RETURN ON A LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON A SLOWLY SAGGING
COLD FRONT. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FORECAST
TO HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. A DAMAGING MICROBURST CAN'T
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALSO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY
WILL TRANSPIRE. SOME OF THIS EVENING'S GUIDANCE TENDS TO KEEP AT
LEAST SOME WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, ACCELERATING IT'S ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. OTHER GUIDANCE,
HAS A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SLOWING THE FRONT'S ADVANCE. IN EITHER EVENT, A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL SINK
TOWARDS OUR AREA BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ACT TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AT
THIS TIME, MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. WITH PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR, A
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS
POSSIBLE IF A DISCRETE CELL CAN REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW SUPPORTING POTENTIAL TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED, THAT IF EARLY DAY
CONVECTION LINGERS, THIS COULD INHIBIT LATER CONVECTION, SO WE
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS.
BY EVENING, THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PUSH SOUTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. A GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THE FRONT, USHERING COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER WEATHER SETTLES IN ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SEES TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB ONCE
AGAIN AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT POTENTIAL
WEATHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AREA. AFTER
WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM, FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE
AND SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THE FORECAST PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KOFK: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 10Z FOR THE
TERMINAL. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z, MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS
AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z. THIS CHANCE
WAS OMITTED FROM PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF MORE THAN A SPOTTY SHOWER/STORM IMPACTING THE
TERMINAL. BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS SECONDARY PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD KLNK. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY AROUND 12-18KTS.
KOMA: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTH BY 21Z. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING, GENERALLY BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z AT
THE TERMINAL. GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTION FOR A FEW
HOURS, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS BEGINNING AROUND 21Z.
KLNK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS OUR NEXT
STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT
THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. AFTER A LULL IN STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING, THERE IS A SECOND CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY AROUND 12-18KTS BY 21Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...ANW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page