713
FXUS63 KOAX 131049
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
549 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AFTER A QUIET FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
MOISTURE RETURN ON A LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON A SLOWLY SAGGING
COLD FRONT. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FORECAST
TO HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. A DAMAGING MICROBURST CAN'T
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALSO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY
WILL TRANSPIRE. SOME OF THIS EVENING'S GUIDANCE TENDS TO KEEP AT
LEAST SOME WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, ACCELERATING IT'S ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. OTHER GUIDANCE,
HAS A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SLOWING THE FRONT'S ADVANCE. IN EITHER EVENT, A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL SINK
TOWARDS OUR AREA BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ACT TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AT
THIS TIME, MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. WITH PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR, A
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS
POSSIBLE IF A DISCRETE CELL CAN REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW SUPPORTING POTENTIAL TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED, THAT IF EARLY DAY
CONVECTION LINGERS, THIS COULD INHIBIT LATER CONVECTION, SO WE
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS.
BY EVENING, THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PUSH SOUTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. A GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THE FRONT, USHERING COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER WEATHER SETTLES IN ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SEES TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB ONCE
AGAIN AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT POTENTIAL
WEATHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AREA. AFTER
WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM, FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE
AND SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THE FORECAST PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KOFK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MADISON
COUNTY AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL AT THE START
OF THE TAF PERIOD. RIGHT NOW, THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS
MORNING WILL BE THROUGH 15Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BETWEEN 19Z-22Z. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SECONDARY ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS LOWER. WITH SPOTTY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE
POSSIBLE SECOND WAVE, THE MENTION OF THIS ADDITIONAL CHANCE WAS
OMITTED FROM PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME BEING. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TODAY, INCREASING TO AROUND 12-18KTS BY
15Z. WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
KOMA: VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING, BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. RIGHT NOW, THE BEST
CHANCE OF MORNING CONVECTION WILL BE BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z OR 17Z.
A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AFTER THE FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH, THE
TERMINAL CAN EXPECT A BREAK THROUGH MID-DAY, WITH A SECOND ROUND
OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE OMAHA METRO OR SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
AROUND 22Z, WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS THROUGH 01Z. HAIL AND WIND
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY TODAY BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT, INCREASING TO AROUND 12-18KTS.
KLNK: THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE KEAR AREA. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST, BRINGING THEM INTO THE VICINITY OF KLNK LATER
THIS MORNING. RIGHT NOW, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO
THE TERMINAL MAINLY BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z, WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. ONCE THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS
MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL BE A BREAK THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS. MODELS ARE SHOWING STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL, WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS AFFECTING KLNK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...ANW
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